The return of football on a Monday night sees struggling Werder Bremen come up against Bayer Leverkusen. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bet.
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2pts Bayer Leverkusen (-1 handicap) to beat Werder Bremen at 15/8
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Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (BT Sport, 1930 BST)
The Bundesliga weekend comes to an end with a meeting of two sides at opposite ends of the table.
Bayer Leverkusen have aspirations of securing Champions League football next season, while Bremen are battling to avoid the drop and need to find a minor miracle in an eight-point swing in their favour to survive.
To make matters worse for Bremen supporters, just five of their 18 points this season have come at home. That doesn't put them in a good place when they take on a strong Leverkusen outfit.
Bremen may have Paderborn below them in the standings but they can count themselves somewhat lucky that they don't prop up the table at this point.
The xG puts them in last place and, for anyone who has watched them at any point during the vast majority of this season, it is correct to do so.
Bremen's only victory at home came at the beginning of September when they edged out Augsburg in a five-goal thriller. When it comes to playing those at the top-end of the table, there has been a comfortable margin in the scoreline.
Leverkusen will be optimistic that they can continue that trend and their 4/6 general price looks too big. There is always going to be some doubt about how teams will react following the enforced break, but Bayern sitting at 2/11 away at Union Berlin shows how short some prices can be.
Now, this isn't comparing Leverkusen to Bayern, although both sides are leading the way in the German top-flight, but there's an expectation that the away side would be similar value here given the sheer difference in quality.
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On that topic of how we should expect teams to react, Bremen's narrow 1-0 victory over Dusseldorf on their first game back following the winter break would give them hope that maybe they can come out and get something here.
But the result hides what was a pretty uninspiring performance from the current strugglers. Their goal, a deflected header from a tight angle at the back post, came in a contest where they failed to create real chances.
The fact that a poor quality goal gave them their only league win of 2020 is perhaps the perfect description of their current position in the table.
We focus on that result, because there's little else positive to shout about this Bremen team on the whole, but Leverkusen's 4-1 hammering of Paderborn in their first league game of 2020 should be a truer reflection of how this game is likely to unfold.
Since that game against Paderborn, Leverkusen have lost just one of their seven league contests. Only Bayern Munich (22) and Borussia Dortmund (21) have secured more points in 2020 than Die Werkself (19).
These two sides ended up sharing their points in the first meeting during a five-week spell from September to November where Bremen earned a draw in every contest they were involved in.
Again, like Bremen's meeting with Dusseldorf, the score line in that game didn't truly reflect the balance of the contest.
If it were a game of FIFA, and you were controlling Leverkusen, it's not only a result that would make you turn off the console but one that would make you smash the controller too.
Leverkusen wasted multiple good chances there but we shouldn't expect the same here. There's enough confidence in the away side to back them on the handicap, but taking the -1 option at 15/8 in case of a relative slow start following months on the sidelines is the best bet.
Score prediction: Werder Bremen 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Bayer Leverkusen (-1 handicap) to beat Werder Bremen at 15/8
Opta facts
- Werder Bremen have won just one of their last seven competitive matches against Bayer 04 Leverkusen (D3 L3). They’d won four of their previous five against the Werkself (also L1).
- Leverkusen have scored more Bundesliga goals away at Bremen than they have against any other side (62).
- Leverkusen average just 0.87 points-per-game from their 39 Bundesliga away matches in Bremen. Amongst current Bundesliga sides, the Werkself only average fewer points-per-away-game versus Bayern (0.44).
- Werder have lost nine of their last 11 Bundesliga games, only picking up points against Hertha (2-2 on MD25) and Düsseldorf (1-0 win on MD18).
- Werder have lost their last six Bundesliga home games, failing to score in each of their last five at home – both are a negative record for the club in the top-flight.
- Bremen have the worst defence in this Bundesliga season, having conceded 55 goals. They’ve only shipped more goals after 24 games in 1979/80 (58; relegated).
- Werder have dropped 21 points from winning positions in the Bundesliga this season - a league high. They’ve only thrown away more after taking a lead in 1971/72 (22) and 1991/92 (25).
- For the first time this Bundesliga season, Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last five games (W4 D1). They’ve taken 13 of a possible 15 points in this period – a joint league-high together with Bayern.
- Leverkusen have picked up 19 points from eight matches since the winter break (also managed this in 1999/2000). It’s the joint-best return at this stage of a Rückrunde in the club’s Bundesliga history.
- Leverkusen’s Kai Havertz (20Y, 8M, 25D) is the youngest player to score 30 Bundesliga goals, surpassing the previous record holder, Klaus Fischer (20Y, 9M, 10D).
- Paulinho had a hand in three goals (2 goals, 1 assist) in Leverkusen’s 4-0 win against Frankfurt last time out, becoming the first Werkself player to do so on his first Bundesliga start for the club (since detailed data collection began in 2004/05).
Odds correct at 1630 BST (15/05/20)
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