Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Frenkie de Jong to score anytime at 9/1
1pt Julian Draxler to score anytime at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Barcelona v PSG
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home Evens | Draw 14/5 | Away 23/10
Is this the highlight of the round of 16 stage? There is a strong case to say that it is. Two of Europe's biggest and best sides meet at a still relatively early point of the competition and the loser will be beyond disappointed with their finishing position.
Both sides are odds-on to progress, the bookmakers just can't separate them. PSG find themselves in a somewhat rare position with Lille ahead of them by the single point in France while Barca trail leaders Atletico Madrid by a more significant eight points in Spain.
PSG ended their long wait to make the final of this competition last season but were left without the trophy in their hands. They will hope Mauricio Pochettino's arrival will inspire them to overcome that hurdle; it is surely their main objective now given their long domestic dominance.
This is a contest that should see goals given the power in attack. Even without Neymar and Angel Di Maria, the squad depth at the top-end for PSG means someone else can step in and fill the void. One player who should do that is Julian Draxler, and he's the first of two goalscorers advised here with a best price of 5/1 available.
His recent time at the club has been severely disrupted by injury but he returned to the starting XI and scored the opener in the win over Nice. With injuries elsewhere, he should get the nod again here with enough shown in that game to warrant another spot in the XI.
That was his third goal of the Ligue 1 season. However, he has only made six starts and the rest of his appearances have been from the bench. When injury doesn't prevent Draxler from making the starting XI, he is more often than not making an impact.
That 5/1 price on a goal anytime looks to be priced up based on his record so far but a start will give him plenty of minutes to try and find the net in. With goals expected (over 2.5 is 1/2 across the board), Draxler represents good value given his position in the PSG attacking midfield.
Staying with goalscorers and the 9/1 for Frenkie de Jong to strike may look great value depending on the Barcelona starting XI. It could be worth checking that before committing to backing this bet, but the early price available is worth a gamble if he does go back to a central midfield role.
I say this because he has been filling in at centre-back in recent games but Samuel Umtiti's return at the weekend should mean de Jong can move back into the midfield trio. The reason why that 9/1 looks great value is because of his new role which breaks him away from the previous deep-lying mould.
He's known for being an excellent player at the base of the midfield, but Ronald Koeman's switch to a 4-3-3 has allowed him to be closer to the opposition area. Sergio Busquets can hold and de Jong has the freedom to push forward, it's something that has been demonstrated in his goals return.
If we look at his record from mid-December, and use the 2-1 win over Real Sociedad as a starting point, de Jong has found the net on six separate occasions. That return is better than a goal every three games and a midfield role here will show why that 9/1 is just too overpriced and based on previous reputation.
The above shot map form Infogol perhaps best demonstrates that new position. He isn't seeing a huge increase in average shots per game but we can see how they are largely coming from close range with a couple from outside the area. In a deeper position, he wouldn't be given the licence to get that close to goal and capitalise on the chances.
As ever with games like this between two teams in good form, the outright result is probably one to avoid. There is better value in the goalscorer market in what should be a game with plenty of attacking opportunities. Five of the last six meetings between these two sides have seen over 3.5 goals, we should expect that trend to continue.
Score prediction: Barcelona 2-2 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Barcelona v PSG best bets
Odds correct at 1420 GMT (15/02/21)
Opta facts
- Barcelona have knocked out Paris SG in each of their last three UEFA Champions League knock-out ties: 2012/13 quarter-finals (3-3 agg. away goals), 2014/15 quarter-finals (5-1 agg.), 2016/17 round of 16 (6-5 agg.). The only previous time Paris SG overcame the Catalans in a UCL knockout tie was in the 1994/95 quarter-finals (3-2 agg.).
- The last time Barcelona and Paris SG met was in the 2016/17 UEFA Champions League round of 16. The Catalan side became the first – and so far only – side to qualify for the next round following a 4+ goals first-leg margin of defeat (0-4 first leg at Parc des Princes; 6-1 second leg at Camp Nou).
- Since 2012/13, only Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid have faced each other more often (10 times) than Barcelona and Paris SG (8) in the UEFA Champions League. Those eight games have produced 32 goals, an average of four per match.
- Only one French club has beaten Barcelona at Camp Nou – it was FC Metz in the first round of the Cup Winners Cup in October 1984 (4-1). No French side though has ever beaten FCB on their own patch in the UEFA Champions League (D2 L8).
- Barcelona will attempt to reach the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the 14th consecutive season, a record. The last time they were knocked out in the round of 16 was in 2006/07 against Liverpool (2-2 agg. away goals).
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