Bournemouth aim to keep their Premier League survival hopes alive when they host Southampton on Sunday. We look at the betting.
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0.5pt Danny Ings first goalscorer at 4/1
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Bournemouth v Southampton
- 14:00 BST kick-off on BT Sport
- Match Odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 19/10
A point is probably no good to Bournemouth in this one as they must win at least one of their final two matches to have any chance of avoiding relegation, so they simply have to go for it.
Southampton may have drawn their last three Premier League games, but it certainly wasn't by design. Ralph Hasenhuttl's side are very much a front foot team, so I think we can expect an entertaining game at the Vitality.
Which means goals is where I'm going to focus because result-wise it's tricky to call. Bournemouth have improved markedly of late, with a goalless draw against Tottenham, come-from-behind 4-1 win over Leicester and a desperately unlucky 2-1 defeat at Manchester City.
Saints' away record is a well told story now too, the fifth best in the division, and most recently it's two wins and two draws on the road. All told, Southampton have lost just once since football resumed.
Perhaps more than any other match I've looked at this season I just feel like all three results are as likely as each other. Prediction wise, that means I'm going for the draw, but it's a market I'll be avoiding.
First up then, BTTS at 8/13 seems like a really sensible bet. In their last 10 matches combined, eight have seen both teams score - given how I believe this match will play out clean sheets don't look on the cards. So I'm sticking with the goals theme.
Usually I'm not one for backing Overs as I think the value tends to be in the Unders market as a very general rule, but here I'm very much drawn to it as there have been Over 2.5 Goals in eight of Bournemouth's last 10 home games and six of Southampton's last seven away games: Over 2.5 Goals at 15/13 is good enough for me.
We can't ignore Danny Ings in the goalscorer market either with Ings available at 4/1 as first goalscorer.
He's only 11/10 anytime which doesn't tempt me, and although I don't think 4/1 is a massive price in a match that offers so little certainty in terms of outcome - and therefore who's likely to strike first - it's big enough to back with low stakes.
Ings being three goals behind Jamie Vardy in the Golden Boot race will hopefully bring out an extra ruthless streak.
Prediction: Bournemouth 2-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
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