Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets as Leicester look to continue their fine start to the season when they host Fulham on Monday.
Recommended bets
2pts Leicester to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/8
1pt Leicester to win and under 2.5 goals at 3/1
0.5pt e.w Youri Tielemens to score first at 10/1 (1/3 1-98)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leicester v Fulham
- 17:30 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match odds: Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 5/1
Leicester's performance at Anfield last Sunday was bitterly disappointing given the circumstances. Having won every away game this season, and faced with a threadbare Liverpool, they showed too little ambition.
The champions were allowed to take a grip of the match, and they dished out a lesson to Brendan Rodgers' team.
But we shouldn't be too harsh. Heading into this weekend's fixtures, the Foxes sat fourth after nine games and just two points off the top. They really have made an excellent start.
Leicester will beat Fulham on Monday evening, of that I'm fairly certain, but Scott Parker's team are no longer the early-season punchbags who looked guaranteed to make an immediate return to the Sky Bet Championship. They do still have only four points, though.
After conceding 10 goals in their first three games, only five were shipped in the next five. The means of achieving that must have been forgotten during the international window though, as the Cottagers trailed Everton within 60 seconds last weekend, and were 3-1 behind by the interval.
But their second-half showing was excellent, and they undoubtedly deserved a point. Whether a third successive missed penalty, this time in comical fashion through Ivan Cavaleiro, had any bearing on the result is difficult to say given that the impressive Ruben Loftus-Cheek scored moments later.
I'm willing to forgive Fulham that 45-minute lapse, and trust Parker to have them focused from the off at the King Power. Trust is perhaps a stretch, but it is balanced with the significant value that's on offer. The Cottagers are 6/1 outsiders, and while I won't go as far as backing them to avoid defeat, I do think they'll make things difficult.
Parker's men have have recorded three one-goal defeats, a draw and a win in their past five matches. Before that sticky first half against the Toffees, their defence had looked pretty solid.
Under 2.5 goals is odds-against at a best price of 23/20 with Betway, but four of their last six fixtures have fallen into that bracket. Three of the Foxes' last five league matches have finished 1-0, so I like the general 3/1 odds of Leicester/under 2.5 goals.
Although Fulham have shown glimpses, I just don't think Leicester are the kind of team they're likely to spring a shock against. The adaptability of Rodgers' men to switch between possession dominance and counter attack makes this a really tricky test.
For that reason I'm comfortable laying down a bigger slice on Leicester/under 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet, which should allow for the Foxes to add late goals on the counter, or for Fulham to pinch one.
In the goalscorer market, I see real value with Youri Tielemans.
Fulham have had major issues tracking midfield runners, and even though they have improved defensively, that part of the game is something they do not seem able to get to grips with.
Conor Hourihane, Jairo Riedewald, Tomas Soucek and Abdoulaye Doucoure have all surged to the edge of or into the box unmarked to score against the Cottagers this season - there are few who do that better in the Premier League than Tielemans.
The Belgian has scored in exactly that manner three times already this month - for the Foxes at Leeds, and for his country against both England and Denmark. An added bonus comes in his role as deputy penalty taker, scoring twice from the spot this season when Jamie Vardy has been off the field.
He is 10/1 to score first with bet365, which when taken each-way gives us near enough the same as his best anytime price of 7/2. Sky Bet offer the same each-way market and price Tielemans at 15/2, which gives an indication of the value that's there with this bet, and he could be key to a home win.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bets:
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (27/11/20)
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