Chelsea v Derby tips: Carabao Cup preview and best bets

By George Pitts

Football

Wed October 31, 2018 · 6y ago

George Pitts has a bunch of recommended bets for Chelsea v Derby including Cesc Fabregas to be carded.

Recommended bets: Chelsea v Derby

1pt Harry Wilson to score and Derby to lose at 12/1

1pt Over 11.5 corners at 7/5

1pt Jayden Bogle to be carded at 5/1

1pt Cesc Fabregas to be carded at 11/2

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

(video no longer available)

Chelsea v Derby (Stamford Bridge, 1945 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)

The most eye-catching match of the Carabao Cup fourth round is arguably this one, which sees Frank Lampard take his Derby side to former club Chelsea on Wednesday.

The Sky Bet Championship side impressively beat Jose Mourinho's Manchester United on penalties at Old Trafford in the previous round and they were handed a tricky tie at Stamford Bridge as their reward.

Sometimes a cup run can affect a side's league form, but the Rams have lost just one of six since their September triumph. They were unfortunate not to leave Middlesbrough with all three points at the weekend, after a calamitous own goal saw them draw (watch it here), but they face an incredibly tough test for their trip to the Bridge.

Frank Lampard will make his Stamford Bridge return

With the exception of the Community Shield in August, Maurizio Sarri is yet to taste defeat as Chelsea boss. They are third in the Premier League, top of their Europa League group and beat Liverpool in round three of the Carabao Cup at Anfield, thanks to the brilliance of Eden Hazard.

The Belgium playmaker, who Lampard says is the best in the world on current form, has missed their last two fixtures and could again sit out this one.

A relief for Derby, but Hazard will be replaced by another world-class player from within the Blues' ranks. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is one man who could start, following his Europa League hat-trick and goalscoring cameo from the bench in the weekend win at Burnley.

The England midfielder is available at 9/4 in a score-and-win double, a tempting price considering his form, while Olivier Giroud and Cesc Fabregas are expected to come into the side and are available at 11/10 and 15/4 respectively anytime.

Derby's Harry Wilson, on loan from Liverpool, celebrates after scoring against Man United at Old Trafford

Sticking with the goalscorer markets, Derby's Harry Wilson is the most appealing, at 12/1 to score and be on the losing side. The Welsh winger, on loan from Liverpool, found the back of the net with a stunning free-kick against Man United and also struck from a dead-ball situation for Wales recently in their UEFA Nations League win over the Republic of Ireland (watch it here).

It's also worth looking at the corners and cards markets for some extra value. The Blues may have the fourth-highest corner count in the Premier League (60), but also in the cups with seven against BATE Borisov, 18 at home to Vidi and 11 at PAOK, so over 11.5 corners at 7/5 could be worth backing.

Willian takes a corner for Chelsea v BATE Borisov

In cards, with Fabregas playing in the middle of the park and being central to Chelsea's moves, he could also be the one to slow down Derby’s play and stop counter-attacks and 11/2 looks a fair price for a booking.

Derby, meanwhile, have a high disciplinary record on the road and, with them expected to field another strong XI, youngster Jayden Bogle to be booked at a best price of 5/1 is also an eye-catcher considering he averages nearly two fouls per game and has already been cautioned twice this term.

Derby have performed well so far this season, showing progression in Lampard's short reign, but this test could be one too far with Sarri's Blues looking sharp whoever they come up against. The five-time League Cup winners should avoid any potential upsets.

Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Best bets

Opta facts

Manchester United were defeated by Derby in the Carabao Cup at Old Trafford

Chelsea and Derby last met in December 2014 in the League Cup quarter-final, with the Blues winning 3-1 at Pride Park.
Derby have lost each of their last eight away matches against Chelsea, all in league competition between 1990 and 2008.
Chelsea have scored in each of their last 22 matches against Derby, a run stretching back to January 1988 – the last Rams goalkeeper to keep a clean sheet against them was Peter Shilton in November 1987.
Chelsea have progressed from 18 of their last 19 League Cup ties against non-Premier League opponents – the exception was a fourth round exit on penalties against Burnley in 2008-09 after a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge.
Derby, who eliminated Man Utd in the last round, haven’t knocked out two top-flight sides in a single League Cup campaign since 1968-69 under Brian Clough, when they knocked out Chelsea and Everton.
In the Premier League era, only one team has ever eliminated both Chelsea and Manchester United in a single League Cup campaign – Sunderland did so in 2013-14 on their way to reaching the final.
As a player, Frank Lampard didn’t end on the losing side in any of his last 19 matches at Stamford Bridge (W15 D4 L0 – 18 games with Chelsea, one with Man City).