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Brentford look the value play in the race for promotion

Sky Bet Championship Promotion odds: Brentford the value to reach Premier League

By Liam Kelly

Football

Sat April 03, 2021 · 4y ago

Much like the top tier, the Sky Bet Championship title race appears to be over, with Norwich sitting eight points clear with eight games to play.

The Canaries are 1/250 for automatic promotion in places, and understandably so given the 14-point gap Daniel Farke's side have opened up to third place.

Watford's incredible recent form has seen them rise up to a clear second in the table, flourishing under the guidance of Xisco Muñoz.

Watford's last 10 Championship matches

They've won nine of their last 10 games, conceding chances equating to an average of 0.86 expected goals against (xGA) per game during that span.

If Watford continue to perform at the same level for the rest of the campaign, a swift return to the Premier League is highly likely.

What is Expected Goals (xG)?

Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances

Who will be promoted from the Championship?

Swansea are sitting pretty in third place, six points behind an automatic promotion spot with a game in hand.

Only a monumental collapse would see them drop out of play-off contention, but their underlying xG process is a cause for concern as we head down the stretch.

Steve Cooper's side are 11th in Infogol's expected table, which is a position a team 'deserves' to be in given their performances thus far.

In contrast, BRENTFORD, who are a point behind the Swans in the actual table with the same amount of games played, are the second-best team in the league based on the same metric, averaging 1.62 xGF and 0.93 xGA per game this season.

Although the disparity in price for promotion between the two teams is big, it's easy to see why Brentford are more fancied, at least from a data perspective.

Championship Promotion odds (via Sky Bet)

Watford - 1/4
Brentford - 10/11
Swansea - 5/2
Bournemouth - 9/2
Barnsley - 5/1
Reading - 10/1
Cardiff - 11/1
Middlesbrough 28/1

Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (29/03/21)

A consistent underperformance on their xG numbers, along with a suspect mentality in crunch time, is a worry at this point of the season.

However, at the prices available, even if Brentford fail to gain automatic promotion, they appear to be by far the best team in the play-off mix, making the 13/11 on offer at SBK interesting.

50/1 tip Barnsley remain in the hunt

A small gap has opened up to fifth-placed Barnsley, who are in pole position to secure one of the two remaining play-off spots following an outstanding recent run of form.

Tom Carnduff's each-way tip of Barnsley to win the Sky Bet Championship at 50/1 (1/4 odds, 1,2,3) may have looked tremendously bold at the start of the season, but the overachievers have given us a chance of picking up some hefty place money.

Barnsley 10-match rolling xG averages in the Championship 2019/20 - Present

Their rolling xG trendlines have branched out to an exceptional level since Valérien Ismaël took over in October, currently performing better than many of the teams around them.

Given the way the club is run, it would be nice to see them make the play-offs, and even nicer for Sporting Life followers if they were to finish third!

Which teams will make the play-offs?

Barnsley are just one of a raft of teams looking to edge into a play-off spot. Reading currently hold the final position, with Bournemouth, Cardiff and Middlesbrough in close pursuit.

Reading's blistering start to the season was very fortunate based on expected goal numbers. However, they've improved dramatically throughout the campaign. They will pose a serious threat if they progress to the play-offs.

Bournemouth have under-achieved with the talent they possess, but if they make it in, Jonathan Woodgate's men will represent a danger to all. At 9/2, they look a little short.

Mick McCarthy's work in improving a once stagnant Cardiff side has been admirable. The Welsh team look short of the level required to challenge for promotion, though.

Championship play-off race

Finally, Middlesbrough are an interesting case. They sit fourth in Infogol's expected table, holding a +16.3 expected goal difference (xGD), which is much better than any of the teams named in this group.

It's unlikely that Boro will make the play-offs, currently sitting six points behind the final spot with upcoming fixtures against Bournemouth, Watford and Barnsley, but if Neil Warnock's side do make it, they will be an extremely tough opponent.

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