Bayern Munich head into their Champions League semi-final with Lyon as heavy favourites. Joe Townsend is backing them to continue their goalscoring form.
Recommended bets
2pts Bayern/Over 3.5 total goals at 23/20
1pt Bayern to score over 3.5 goals at 9/5
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Lyon v Bayern Munich
- 2000 kick-off on BT Sport 1
- Latest odds: Home 10/1 | Draw 5/1 | Away 1/5
Hats off to you if before the quarter-finals you backed Bayern Munich to win the Champions League at what now seems like gargantuan 3/1 odds, given their current 4/7 outright price.
A meeting with Barcelona, billed by some as a titanic match-up when everything pointed to a comfortable (not in the realms of 8-2) Bayern victory, meant they were second favourites to Manchester City, who were later dumped out by rank outsiders Lyon.
If the French side were given little chance against City, then they’ve been given absolutely none against Bayern. Their impressive 3-1 win over Pep Guardiola’s men was totally overshadowed by the scarcely believable chastening handed to Barcelona by Hansi Flick’s rampant team.
For any side to be 12/1 to win a Champions League semi-final in 90 minutes is truly astonishing. Those odds would be fairly astronomical at this stage of the FA Cup, but this is Europe’s premier competition, now whittled down to four clubs. Even to qualify Lyon are 8/1. It’s with good reason though.
Bayern’s post-lockdown performances have been sensational, continuing the run of form they had before the shutdown to mean they’ve now won 19 straight matches and are unbeaten in 28 – winning 27. The praise has to go to Flick, who has won 31 of 34 games since he replaced Niko Kovac in November.
And it’s not just winning either, it’s how they’re winning.
Just focusing on matches since the restart, they've scored 45 goals in 13 games, only twice failing to net at least twice and scoring at least four times on seven occasions – including their last four outings.
At the other end, they’ve kept only five clean sheets, and conceded more than once on half of the eight occasions that they're defence has been breached. In total, their 13 post-lockdown matches have involved 57 goals – an average of 4.38 per game.
It has been pure handbrake off, fantasy football.
All of this points us towards the goals market - one I usually avoid because of a lack of value, but this time it's the only place we can find any. Bayern/over 3.5 goals at 23/20 is a bet I’m taking all day long and Bayern/Over 4.5 Goals at 11/5 is a real tempter too.
I'm going to hedge and go with the former, because it wouldn't shock me in the slightest if the German side kept a rare clean sheet and own 4-0. To counter that, I'm backing them to make it a fourth successive match in which they score at least four times by taking Bayern to score over 3.5 goals at 9/5 because of the extra value it offers.
Lyon’s 3-1 win over Manchester City was only the third time in 15 matches that one of their matches has seen Over 3.5 goals, with the other two being defeats by PSG (4-2 and 5-1). So perhaps we’re too hasty in backing free-scoring Bayern to sweep them to one side like they have everybody else.
But City carved them open enough times for me to think that Bayern will do the same, but won't be so profligate.
Finding value in the Bayern goalscorer market is hard as they have contributors all over the pitch, so bookies aren't willing to risk a high price. If you're desperate, you can stake your last dollar on Robert Lewandowski – hence his 2/9 anytime odds.
The Poland captain has found the net in 21 of his past 23 appearances, and on seven of those occasions he has scored more than once. All in all he has done so on 14 occasions this term, which is a staggering statistic. Lewandowski to score two or more goals at 17/10.
Ivan Perisic looks like the best anytime punt at 9/5 given that he’s netted in three of his last four starts having recovered from injury to force his way into the starting XI, which in itself says a lot.
But for me, on balance, I’d rather back Lewandowski to score twice than Perisic to score once. Sorry Ivan.
Finally, I think it's very much worth having a both teams to score bet in the staking plan.
As outlined earlier, Bayern have shown a distinct lack of interest in preserving clean sheets during their wonderful winning run so Bayern to win/BTTS at 7/5 is a hell of a price.
Only twice has not happened in the German side’s past nine matches.
Score prediction: Lyon 1-4 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
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