Paul Higham expects to see more of the old Atletico Madrid as they face RB Leipzig for a place in the Champions League semis.
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2pts Atletico Madrid to beat RB Leipzig & under 2.5 goals at 100/30
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RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid
- 2000 kick-off on BT Sport 1
- Latest odds: Home 9/4 | Draw 21/10 | Away 7/5
When Atletico Madrid spent around £220m last summer, just over half of that on Portuguese wonderkid Joao Felix, it hailed a huge shift in style as Diego Simeone, the master spoiler and defensive genius, threatened to play a more expansive brand of football to light up their fantastic new stadium.
It never really worked out, and only when they got back to basics, with their Champions League win over Liverpool a prime example, did they start to click back into gear - ending the season with an 18-game unbeaten run, so far.
Atletico got away with it a bit against Liverpool - the Reds dominated and had 64 percent possession, 36 shots and 13 on target. They should have wrapped it up in normal time, then had it wrapped up in extra time only for back-up keeper Adrian to hand them a place in the quarter-finals with his errors. That result, though, sparked that fire back under the team and Simeone.
They didn't really challenge for the title but finished in the top four, losing just four games and conceding just 27 goals (only Real Madrid performed better defensively) while also grinding out 22 clean sheets in all games this season.
They're back to the classic Atletico as they showed at Anfield, they'll run all night for Simeone, they'll fight, they'll scrap and they'll be so hard to beat in this one-game format for the rest of the Champions League. They feel it could finally be their year of conquering Europe after many near misses - they've reached three finals but lost them all.
Atletico have a lot of Champions League experience, and happy memories of facing German opposition as they've only ever lost one tie with a German side - although that was in the 1974 European Cup final.
Werner exit ends Leipzig chances?
These two teams were both included in our Champions League outright preview, with Leipzig backed to reach the last eight and Atletico backed to go all the way. The way the draw and Leipzig's transfer dealings have gone means we should be sitting pretty here.
RB Leipzig boss Julian Nagelsmann is the youngest coach to win a Champions League knockout tie, and they themselves have lost just once in 17, although some disappointing draws down the stretch cost them a shot at the German title.
They've also lost 28 goals in the shape of Timo Werner's departure to Chelsea, and missing such a key player really is a big blow to their chances.
The longer break they've had may also be a disadvantage given their usual high-octane style of play calls for high pressing from start to finish. Facing Atletico is a different kettle of fish from anything they'd have seen before though, and with a Champions League quarter-final being uncharted territory for this young club they'll have to change it up to stand a chance against the canniest of canny opposition.
Backing Atleti's experience
At full strength this would be a mouth-watering clash, but without Werner and knowing full well what Atletico will bring to the party, I expect Leipzig to be a bit more conservative than they otherwise would be. Also taking into account the nerves of this first appearance at this stage and also a touch of ring rust given seven weeks off.
Atletico are hardly fast starters, and it's hard to see them changing their gameplan at this stage and there could well be just one goal in this one - under 2.5 goals trading at 4/7 shows you that this isn't expected to be a goalfest.
Three of Atletico's last four league wins came after a 0-0 first half (that's 6/4 here and worth considering) while 11/10 on the second half having the most goals must go on the shortlist as both sides will know that first goal could be all-important.
Also, 12 of Atleti's last 14 goals in the competition have come in the second half.
"We kept on believing. We kept going and going, and we got the win." 🙌
— Football on BT Sport #Club2020 (@btsportfootball) March 11, 2020
Kieran Trippier has hailed the spirit of his Atletico side, as they beat an imperious Liverpool team on Anfield soil...
🎙 @TheDesKelly pic.twitter.com/ez3beDXNB7
Four of Leipzig's last eight Champions League goals being penalties worries me that their stats have been padded out by spot kicks a little, and they'll have to work hard to carve open this Atletico defence. Don't rule out extra time either, but there's enough value in the price of the Spaniards getting the job done in 90 minutes to make that our main interest.
In a tight game that should come down to concentration, discipline and desire, you have to give Atletico the edge. It's hard picking out scorers in a game expected to provide so few, but Alvaro Morata (13/8 anytime) is the man for the big occasion.
He's bagged eight of his 15 Champions League goals in knockout ties, and his last three goals have all been late ones (at least 75 minutes in) and with Leipzig conceding four of their last six in the final five minutes it suggests they could just lose focus late on.
That's Atlei territory.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 0-1 Atletico Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Atletico Madrid to beat RB Leipzig 7/5 under 2.5 goals at 100/30
RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid Opta stats
- This will be the first competitive encounter between RB Leipzig and Atlético Madrid. It’s also the first time RB Leipzig have been drawn against a Spanish club in European competition.
- Atlético Madrid have reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the fifth time in the last seven seasons, a feat only Barcelona and Bayern Munich have bettered over the same period. Meanwhile, this is the first experience for RB Leizpig in the knockout phase of the competition.
- Atlético Madrid have always progressed against German opposition in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (vs Leverkusen in 2014/15 and 2016/17; vs Bayern Munich in 2015/16). In the European Cup era (pre-1992/93), the only time they didn’t prevail was in the 1974 final against Bayern Munich (1-1; 0-4 replay).
- None of RB Leipzig’s 14 games in the UEFA Champions League has ended in a goalless draw. They’ve kept a clean sheet in three of their last five games, after failing to keep a single one in any of their previous nine.
- Four of RB Leizpig’s last eight goals in the UEFA Champions League have come from the penalty spot. In fact, only Atalanta (5) have benefitted from more penalties than Leipzig (4) in this season’s competition.
- RB Leipzig have scored 14 goals despite posting an Expected Goals tally of 17.2 in this season’s UEFA Champions League – the 3.2 xG negative differential is the biggest among the eight teams left in this season’s competition.
- No German side outside of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund has reached the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League since Schalke in 2010/11.
- Atlético Madrid will attempt to become the first team since Real Madrid in 2013/14 to both beat the UEFA Champions League holders and win the tournament in the same season. They have also played the most UEFA Champions League/European Cup finals without ever winning one (3 finals, 0 trophies).
- Since the start of 2019, 12 of Atlético Madrid’s 14 goals in the UEFA Champions League have been scored after half-time.
- Emil Forsberg has scored four of RB Leipzig’s last eight UEFA Champions League goals. All four goals have come in the opening or closing 10 minutes of the match.
Odds correct as of 1154 on 12/08/20
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