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Atletico Madrid v Man Utd tips: Champions League best bets and preview
Manchester United face the daunting task of playing Atletico Madrid in the Champions League last 16. Jake Osgathorpe previews the first leg, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 20/21 (BetVictor, Boylesports)
1pt Cristiano Ronaldo to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
When this tie was drawn back in December, it looked as though it would be a tough task for Manchester United to get past a savvy Atletico Madrid team.
Fast forward a few months though, and there is real belief that the Red Devils can progress past Diego Simeone's men, with the recent results of the Spanish champions simply shocking.
They have won four and lost six of their last 11 La Liga matches, conceding 20 goals process and shipping two or more in the same game on eight occasions.
That is very unlike Atleti.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV Channel: BT Sport 2
Atletico Madrid 7/5 | Draw 11/5 | Man Utd 2/1
That run of results has left them fifth in the La Liga table, some 15 points behind city rivals and current leaders Real Madrid.
However, they have been incredibly unfortunate in that spell, mainly in defence, where they have come a cropper to either some excellent, unsustainable finishing and/or some poor goalkeeping from the usually reliable Jan Oblak.
The 20 goals Atleti have allowed in those 11 games have come from chances equating to 10.86 xGA, with Simeone's side limiting Real Madrid (0.45), Sevilla (0.36) and Barcelona (0.96) to very little in the way of chances in that run.
For more context, using a Poisson model, we can calculate that Atleti were nearly as likely to concede three goals (0.40%) over that run of games as they were to concede 20 (0.43%).
All of this tells us that the recent high-scoring nature of Atletico Madrid, and the supposed weaknesses defensively, are happening due to an unstainable run of bad luck.
What I'm saying is, don't expect the goals to continue to flow, particularly into the Atleti net, especially in this game.
Simeone has an incredible track record in this competition, mainly due to the pragmatic and difficult-to-beat style his team deploys, which is based around not conceding goals and staying in the tie for as long as possible.
With the stats suggesting that their defence has been playing at a similar level to recent years in terms of xGA allowed, we can expect a typically negative display.
After all, they have lost just one of 14 home games in the Champions League knockout stage since Simeone was appointed back in 2011, which came last year to eventual champions Chelsea.
Manchester United look to be finding some form under Ralf Rangnick, and just at the right time, as their schedule severely stiffens after a kind run.
This game against Atletico represents the toughest test for United since the German's appointment, and in their next four league games they face Manchester City, Tottenham and Liverpool.
It is a good job that they are trending in a positive direction, then.
Since Rangnick's arrival, United have averaged 1.81 xGF and 1.22 xGA per game, which is a top four level process in the Premier League, but I suspect we will see a cautious approach from the Red Devils in Spain.
With no away goals rule, there is no need for United to go at Atletico, especially with a home leg second. A draw would be a good result at the Wanda Metropolitano, meaning they would just need a victory at Old Trafford, while if it comes to it, they will play extra-time and penalties in front of a home crowd.
I think the English side will also set up to be difficult to beat, mainly due to Atleti's preferred counter-attacking approach that could devastate United's backline.
With all of that discussed then, seeing Both Teams to Score priced the same (or shorter in places) as BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' seems odd, and we should snap up the 20/21 on offer for the latter.
Defences are likely to be on top here, with both sides 'feeling each other out' in this first leg.
Atleti are statistically still a top defensive side, while United have made great strides in that area under Rangnick.
Couple that with the fact that this bet would have landed in 12 of Atleti's 14 home UCL knockout games under Simeone - highlighting the negative approach adopted by the Spaniards - and the price just looks wrong, being too focused on recency bias after both sides have been involved in high-scoring games of late.
Another bet that piqued my interest is in the cards market, with the player likely to be the pantomime villain an appealing 4/1 TO BE CARDED.
The villain on Wednesday will be CRISTIANO RONALDO, who has an incredible record against Atleti as both a Real Madrid and Juventus player, meaning he will likely be jeered and heckled every time he touches the ball.
Atleti players are likely to target the Champions League's all-time top scorer, knowing he has shown plenty of petulance this season as a frustrated United player.
He has been booked five times in the league this season from committing just 12 fouls, highlighting the seriousness of the offences when he does get cautioned.
Add his sole yellow in the UCL from three fouls and he looks a good option for a card in this game, plus, if he does score against the team he has haunted for nearly a decade, there is every chance the shirt comes off resulting in a caution.
After all, the Portuguese super star loves playing against Atleti. He has scored 17 goals in 33 games across the Champions League, La Liga and Copa del Rey, being carded 10 times in that sample.
The referee in this game, Romanian Ovidiu Hategan, is no stranger to Atletico Madrid this season having already overseen one of their UCL games, a 0-0 draw with Porto that saw nine (yes NINE) yellow cards and one red.
Don't be surprised to see Ronaldo pick up yet another yellow against an Atleti side who will be out to wind him up from the get-go.
Atletico Madrid v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' at 20/21 (BetVictor, Boylesports)
- 1pt Cristiano Ronaldo to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1100 GMT (2202/22)
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