Liam Kelly landed four of his last five La Liga tips before the break, and he returns to provide his best bet for Sunday's clash between Atlético Madrid and Barcelona on ITV4.
Rotation in a midweek round of Copa del Rey action will see Barcelona enter this contest a little fresher than their hosts, despite needing extra time to beat CF Intercity 4-3.
Atlético Madrid fielded a near full-strength side in their cup victory, but their performances for quite a while have been underwhelming to say the least.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: ITV4, LaLigaTV
Although they sit fourth in La Liga, it's been an uncharacteristically sloppy season for Diego Simeone's men, posting a +2.5 expected goal difference (xGD) that ranks eighth in the league.
Perhaps most surprising is their inability to stop teams from creating chances this term (20.5 xGA), usually a staple of a Simeone side. Still, Atléti have conceded just 14 times in 15 games and are always capable of putting in a stubborn defensive display.
That might well be the case here given Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski predicament.
Barca's star striker had a ban upheld by the courts this week, which will see Lewandowski miss the next three matches. Obviously, that severely blunts their attacking threat.
However, for the purposes of the selection — UNDER 2.5 GOALS — it is Barcelona's defensive process that catches the eye.
Available at a pick 'em price of 10/11, two or fewer goals makes sense at the Wanda Metropolitano with Barca being the strongest team at the back in the league this season.
Xavi's side have conceded just six times in their 15 La Liga matches, allowing an average of 0.83 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
Considering Atleti are not exactly fluid going forward, a low-scoring affair looks to be on the cards in a vital game.
Atlético Madrid v Barcelona best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (General)
Score prediction: Atlético Madrid 1-1 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0930 GMT (06/01/23)
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