Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score anytime at 11/5 (Betfair, Paddys)
1pt Samuel Gigot to be carded at 12/5 (BetVictor)
1pt Ederson to be carded at 9/2 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 35/1
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to score anytime
- Both teams to score
- Samuel Gigot to be carded
- Ederson to be carded
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: TNT Sports 3
Home 7/10 | Draw 14/5 | Away 15/4
Agg: Atalanta 1-1 Marseille
It's all square between Atalanta and Marseille after a tense first leg in France in which both goals in a 1-1 draw were scored in the first half.
The Italians have impressed yet again this season under Gian Piero Gasperini, fighting on all fronts successfully. They are one game from a European final, have a Coppa Italia final to look forward to, and have Champions League qualification via the Serie A route in their hands.
The same can't be said for Marseille, who have had a turbulent campaign but have at least found some form. They sit ninth in Ligue 1, and this competition looks their only realistic way back into European competition for next season.
What are the best bets?
PIERRE-EMERICK AUBAMEYANG is having a stellar goalscoring season at Marseille, and is the current top scorer in this competition.
He has fired 27 goals in 47 appearances across all competitions, with a goals per 90 average of 0.67. In the Europa League alone he's netted 10 in 12 games with a goals per 90 average an insane 0.95!
That alone is enough for me to pull the trigger and back him TO SCORE ANYTIME at a price of 11/5.
Marseille will likely have to score at least once here given Atalanta's strong attack, and the former Arsenal man looks the most likely candidate to be the scorer, especially as he is on penalty duty for his side too.
Given the stage of the competition, the stakes could not be higher here so cards should fly. Spaniard Jesus Gil Manzano is at the whistle, and he's averaged 4.5 cards per game this term, though that average jumps to 6.0 per game when he has reffed on the continent.
So, I'm going to a few player cards. First up is our quarter-final friend SAMUEL GIGOT. We backed him TO BE CARDED in the second leg of Marseille's tie with Benfica and he duly obliged.
The centre-back has been a card magnet this season, highlighted by the fact he was suspended for the first leg of this tie. The Frenchman has averaged 0.35 cards per 90 across all competitions this season, and he looks a great candidate to pick up another here.
If Atalanta take the lead, you can expect Marseille to leave space as they chase an equaliser, and that could leave him exposed. Likewise if Marseille take the lead you can bet he will bring out the dark arts and be cynical, or even time waste. Even without those possibilities, the fact he will be up against the awkward Gianluca Scamacca is enough to leave me wanting to back him.
I wanted to have a punt on Marten de Roon, but defensive injuries have seen him start as part of a back three as opposed to his preferred midfield role. If he does start in midfield he looks a bet, but I'll back his fellow midfielder EDERSON TO BE CARDED.
The Brazilian has been booked nine times this term, and committed three fouls in the first leg, so looks a juicy price at 9/2 to pick up a yellow in this second leg - he's as short as 6/4 in places.
Team news
Atalanta look set to be without defenders Sead Kolasinac, Rafael Toloi, and Emil Holm, meaning Gian Piero Gasperini call upon Berat Djimsiti, Matteo Ruggeri and Isak Hien to fill the gaps.
Marseille are set to be without Valentin Rongier and Bilal Nadir, but manager Jean-Louis Gasset has plenty of options elsewhere.
Predicted line-ups
Atalanta: Musso; Scalvini, Hien, Djimsiti; Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Ruggeri; Koopmeiners; De Ketelaere, Scamacca.
Marseille: Lopez; Clauss, Gigot, Balerdi, Murillo; Harit, Veretout, Kondogbia; Sarr, Aubameyang, Henrique.
Match facts
- This will be just the second competitive meeting between Atalanta and Marseille, following the 1-1 draw in the first leg of this tie; La Dea’s only previous time hosting a French opponent in European competition came in the 2017-18 UEFA Europa League group stage, beating Lyon 1-0.
- Atalanta are aiming to reach the final of a European competition for the very first time, and would become the first team to reach their first such final since Ukranian side FC Dnipro played in the 2015 UEFA Europa League final. Marseille, meanwhile, last reached the showpiece event of a European competition in the 2018 UEFA Europa League, losing 3-0 to Atlético de Madrid.
- Marseille remain winless across their last eight games against Italian opposition in European competition, drawing each of the last three (L5); meanwhile, OM have only won one of their 11 away matches in Italy (D5 L5), winning 1-0 at Internazionale in the 2003-04 UEFA Cup quarter-finals.
- Atalanta have progressed through four of their five knockout stage ties in major European competition when avoiding defeat in the first leg away from home, drawing 1-1 with Sporting CP in the last 16 and beating Liverpool 3-0 in the quarter-finals before advancing to the next stage this season.
- Marseille have progressed through each of their last nine knockout stage ties in major European competition when avoiding defeat in the first leg, since being eliminated by Manchester United in the 2010-11 UEFA Champions League last 16 (0-0 1st leg, 1-2 2nd leg).
- Atalanta have lost just two of their 17 home matches in the UEFA Cup/Europa League (W10 D5), but did suffer a 1-0 defeat last time out at the Gewiss Stadium to Liverpool. They have also conceded just 11 times across those 17 games, keeping eight clean sheets.
- Marseille are winless in their last four away games in European competition (D1 L3), since winning 2-0 at AEK Athens in November 2023; in fact, that win in Greece is their only victory on the road in their last 14 attempts in the UEFA Europa League (D5 L8).
- Gianluca Scamacca has scored five of Atalanta’s seven goals in the UEFA Europa League knockout stage this season, with no player netting more such goals in 2023-24 (Marseille’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – also 5); the last player to score more in the knockout rounds of the competition was James Tavernier for Rangers in 2021-22 (7).
- Marseille’s Chancel Mbemba has scored four goals in the UEFA Europa League this season, more than any other defender across Europe’s three major competitions. His strike in the first leg was his first in the knockout rounds of a European competition, with his first eight coming in the group stages (5 in UEFA Champions League, 3 in UEFA Europa League)
Odds correct at 1225 BST (06/05/24)
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