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Atalanta vs Arsenal betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Arsenal to win at 10/11 (William Hill, BetUK)
1pt Sead Kolasinac to commit 2+ fouls at 6/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
BuildABet @ 11/1
- Arsenal to win
- Sead Kolasinac to commit 2+ fouls
- Bukayo Saka to score or assist
- Jurrien Timber 2+ tackles
Arsenal head to Italy for their second game of a 'season defining week'.
Atalanta are the meat in the Tottenham and Manchester City sandwich, and they present another tough challenge for the Gunners.
The reigning Europa League champions have made a steady start in Serie A, picking up where they left off by being the league's entertainers.
Arsenal will have key players back, and the new Champions League format means the Gunners can't afford to drop too many points if they are to finish in the top eight.
What are the best bets?
I think keeping things simple is the best bet in this game, with ARSENAL TO WIN looking overpriced at 10/11.
Given how closely matched I think Arsenal are with Manchester City, I always ask myself, 'what price would Manchester City be in this game?', and on this occasion I think they'd be closer to 4/5.
The Gunners, fresh off a derby day win, will be riding high and wanting to get off to the best possible start in the League Phase.
Atalanta do pose a serious attacking threat, but their defensive vulnerabilities have been severely exposed so far this season, hinting that Arsenal could find plenty of joy.
La Dea have conceded an average of 1.81 xGA per game despite facing a fairly kind schedule.
They've faced Lecce, Torino, Fiorentina and champions Inter, conceding multiple goals in three of those and posting the third most xGA of any Serie A side.
Mikel Arteta's side will therefore get plenty of chances, and given the Gunners' incredibly stubborn backline - one that allowed just 0.87 xGA per away game in the Premier League and 1.07 xGA per away game in the Champions League last season - they should be able to come away with three points.
Keen on Kolasinac
Given the way Atalanta set up, with a 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 system, I'm looking to target the left centre back in the fouls markets, and that just so happens to be former Arsenal man SEAD KOLASINAC.
His price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS looks big given he will likely come up against Bukayo Saka head-to-head plenty of times on the night.
While his fouls per 90 average in Serie A last season was modest (1.25), on the continent he was very lively, committing an average of 2.75 per 90.
So far this season Saka has been fouled 2.35 times per 90, while in last season's Champions League that figure was up at 3.10 per 90.
Team news
Declan Rice will return for Arsenal after he was suspended at the weekend, but this clash could still come too soon for captain Martin Odegaard and summer signing Riccardo Calafiori.
Fellow new face Mikel Merino is doubtful, while Bukayo Saka is an injury concern after coming off late in the North London derby, though he expected to start.
Takehiro Tomiyasu and Oleksandr Zinchenko continue to be absent, though Gabriel Jesus is close to full fitness and could feature here.
Atalanta are missing Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini through long-term injuries, and both Rafael Toloi and Ben Godfrey are doubtful.
Former Arsenal defender Sead Kolasinac is back after an injury, as is Berat Djimsiti.
Predicted line-ups
Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Djimsiti, Hien, Kolasinac; Bellanova, Ederson, De Roon, Ruggeri; De Ketelaere, Lookman; Retegui
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Partey, Rice; Saka, Trossard, Sterling; Havertz
Match facts
- Atalanta have never previously faced Arsenal in any competition. The Gunners will be the fifth English side they have met in major European competition, after Everton (W2), Man City (D1 L1), Liverpool (W2 L2) and Man Utd (D1 L1).
- Atalanta’s last four UEFA Champions League games – all in the 2021-22 group stage – have seen both them and their opponents score two or more goals (D2 L2). In the entire history of the European Cup, no side has ever both scored and conceded 2+ goals in five consecutive matches.
- Arsenal have won their opening match in each of their last six major European campaigns (five in UEFA Europa League and last season’s Champions League). The last side to beat the Gunners in their first game was Dinamo Zagreb in the 2015-16 Champions League.
- The 2023/24 UEFA Europa League final – won 3-0 by his side – was Gian Piero Gasperini’s 50th game in charge of Atalanta in major European competition (excluding qualifiers). Gasperini has won just under half of those (48%), with 24 victories from 50 matches (D14 L12).
- Atalanta’s 23 UEFA Champions League matches have seen 3.6 goals per game (40 for, 43 against), the second-most of any team to feature 20+ times in the competition, behind Viktoria Plzen (3.8 per game).
- Bukayo Saka was involved in eight goals in nine UEFA Champions League appearances for Arsenal in 2023-24 (4 goals, 4 assists), the most by an Englishman in their debut season, breaking the record set by Lee Bowyer for Leeds United in 2000-01 (6 goals, 1 assist).
- Raheem Sterling could make his UEFA Champions League debut for Arsenal in this game and would become the first player in European Cup history to play for four different English teams, having previously played for Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea. The other four players to play for three are David Batty (Leeds, Blackburn, Newcastle), Yossi Benayoun (Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea), William Gallas (Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs) and Kolo Touré (Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool).
Odds correct at 1800 BST (17/09/24)
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