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Aston Villa's problems go beyond losing Jack Grealish in the summer
It was always going to be difficult for Aston Villa to replace Jack Grealish.
He was, after all, an elite level talent playing for a team that finished 11th in the Premier League table last season. More than this, the 26-year-old was the physical embodiment of the West Midlands club having spent his entire career there.
Even after reinvestment of some of the record £100m transfer fee received for Grealish, a drop-off was expected and so the sight of Aston Villa in 15th place after 10 fixtures this season isn’t too surprising. More concerning, though, is that their current problems have very little to do with Grealish’s departure.
Dean Smith made a number of bold calls for Sunday’s home fixture against West Ham. Most notably, captain Tyrone Mings was dropped to the bench after a series of poor performances. This in itself was an acknowledgment from the Aston Villa manager that fundamental change is needed.
However, the alterations didn’t have the desired effect as Villa were humbled on their own pitch. Their defensive shape, or lack thereof, allowed West Ham far too much space throughout - see how Matt Targett gave Ben Johnson the freedom to cut inside with ease and get a shot away for the opener.
It was a similar story Declan Rice’s strike to put West Ham 2-1 up with Aston Villa’s defensive line far too deep to apply any pressure on the England international. There was a disconnect between the defence and midfield, and this wasn’t the first time this problem has been apparent this season.
Villa have conceded three or more goals in each of their last three league outings, their worst defensive run for nine years. Only Norwich (2.5) and Newcastle (2.3) are conceding more goals per game than Smith’s side (1.9) in the Premier League this season, highlighting the problems they are experiencing at the back.
🦁 #AVFC - 1 (0.80 xG)
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) October 31, 2021
⚒ #WHUFC - 4 (2.74 xG)
A superb display by David Moyes' side at Villa Park.
👏 #AVLWHU pic.twitter.com/3kYal5SOHO
By almost every metric, Aston Villa’s numbers are down on last season.
Kourtney Hause’s average of 7.6 clearances per match has dropped to 1.8. Matty Cash’s average of 2.1 interceptions per match is down to just 1.1 per match. John McGinn was Villa’s most prolific tackler last season with an average of 2.0 per match. Now, he’s making just 1.6 per match.
Grealish staying wouldn’t have solved any of these issues, although he might have brought more fluidity to Aston Villa’s attack.
This is where the 26-year-old is notable in his absence with Villa averaging just 3.6 shots on target per match - only Southampton (3.5), Newcastle (3.1), Crystal Palace (3.0) and Norwich City (2.4) are averaging fewer.
Only five Premier League teams have created fewer ‘big chances’ than Aston Villa while only five teams have won the ball in the final third, hinting at the ideological no man’s land Smith’s team find themselves in - they are not a counter-attacking team nor are they a high-pressing outfit.
Villa lack identity on both sides of the ball.
🦁 Aston Villa's Expected Goals (xG) totals by game in the Premier League this season
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) October 31, 2021
• 0.80 v West Ham
• 1.36 v Arsenal
• 1.08 v Wolves
• 1.37 v Spurs
• 1.48 v Man United
• 0.97 v Everton
• 1.33 v Chelsea
• 0.84 v Brentford
• 1.35 v Newcastle
• 1.26 v Watford#AVFC pic.twitter.com/zyGvvl6L4E
Some might point to a lack of creativity as proof of how Villa are missing Grealish, and there is some weight to that argument.
He was their top key pass-maker last season (3.1 per match), but Aston Villa have also lost Ross Barkley, who was their second-top key pass-maker (1.6 per match). Nobody has stepped up to fill that void - Douglas Luiz, a midfield anchor, is their highest ranked key passer.
Danny Ings, whose signing from Southampton was widely seen as something of a coup, has so far struggled to strike up much of an understanding with Ollie Watkins while Emi Buendia, considered the direct replacement for Grealish, has yet to find top form despite Smith’s system being built around him as the number 10.
Aston Villa’s summer business, which saw them spend close to £90m on Buendia, Ings and Leon Bailey, had some predicting a top six challenge, but Smith’s side have regressed this season.
Even things like the addition of Austin MacPhee as a set-piece coach have underwhelmed - at times it’s as if Villa are trying too hard to do something different from corner kicks in particular.
Smith deserves great credit for the way he took Aston Villa back up to the Premier League and kept them there last season, but the 50-year-old’s position is surely at risk now.
Even after the loss of Grealish, his team are a lot better than they are showing at this moment in time. If Smith can’t fix the problems, someone else will have to do it.