Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.5pts Mohammed Kudus 3+ total shots at 17/10 (Betway)
1pt West Ham to qualify at 9/4 (General)
BuildABet @ 12/1
- West Ham to qualify
- Mohammed Kudus 3+ total shots
- Lucas Paqueta 2+ fouls committed
- Jaden Philogene 1+ foul committed
So, another new manager at West Ham. The Hammers parted company with Julen Lopetegui in midweek and have replaced him with Graham Potter.
The questions then become; how much time has he had to work with his new players and will he even be on the touchline on Friday? The answers are probably; two days and yes.
His appointment does throw a spanner in the works when prognosticating what team West Ham will field, but I think Unai Emery's track record makes life a little easier for us when selecting a bet in this one.
What are the best bets?
I do think that motivation may be the biggest factor in this game.
You'd imagine, with Aston Villa eighth in the Premier League and fifth in Champions League, that Unai Emery will have the FA Cup as a very low priority, especially with his side playing two away league games and an away UCL match in quick succession after this.
The Spanish supremo has a rotten record in domestic cup competitions, likely on purpose, as he seems quite happy to get knocked out of them early and focus on either domestic league or European performances - or both.
That has been the case at Villa, where he is yet to get past the fourth round of either the Carabao Cup or FA Cup in five attempts. This season, his side were beaten in the Carabao fourth round at home by a Crystal Palace team who were really struggling at the time, while last season they exited that competition in the third round at home to a poor Everton team.
Both this season and last saw the Villans in European competition, reaching the semi-finals of the Conference League last term, and with them on the brink of making it to the last 16 of the Champions League, I suspect we see them bow out of this competition either here or in the next round, just as they have the last two seasons.
In 23/24 they were ousted from the FA Cup by Chelsea despite drawing at Stamford Bridge and taking the game back to Villa Park only to lose the replay, while in 22/23 they were upset at home by lower-league Stevenage.
Not a great body of work in domestic cup competitions in this country then, and it even stretches back to his only full season at Arsenal, where the Gunners were knocked out in round four of the FA Cup at home (again) to Manchester United, and in the quarters of the Carabao when beaten at home by rivals Tottenham. Note that his Arsenal team reached the final of the Europa League that season, losing to Chelsea.
Even at Villarreal Emery plainly disregarded the Copa del Rey, reaching the quarters once in 20/21 when being eliminated by lowly Levante and being knocked out by Sporting Gijon in round four in 21/22. Again, note that his side won the Europa League the first season and reached the semi-finals of the Champions League the second.
It seems then, that Emery is pretty predictable in the fact that he wants out of the cup competitions ASAP, and that opens the door for WEST HAM TO QUALIFY, even with the managerial uncertainty.
The Hammers sit 14th in the league and are in a kind of limbo, too far ahead of the bottom three to worry about relegation (seven points), and too far behind the top eight (nine points) to consider qualifying for European football next season.
It makes sense then, that the Hammers have a real go in this competition, and under new management, this could be a good game to make a statement.
Their recent record in FA Cup is impressive, and does suggest that they as a club take it seriously. The Hammers have reached at least the fifth round of the FA Cup in three of the last four seasons.
I completely understand it is a risk, as Villa on their day are a much better team, but I fully expect Emery to be Emery.
Add in the managerial change, and that could lead to a big uplift in the Hammers, with the players clearly not enjoying life under Lopetegui, so we could see an immediate reaction - the famed 'new manager bounce' - against a team that could be happy to exit the competition.
I'll add a second bet somewhat pro-West Ham bet here too, with MOHAMMED KUDUS' price for 3+ TOTAL SHOTS too big to turn down at 17/10.
After putting the Ghanaian up to register 1+ shot on target last weekend at Manchester City in my column, it was extremely frsutrating to see him fire five shots but fail to test the City keeper.
This time, let's just trust him to pull the trigger, something he loves to do. In all competitions this season he's taken 3.36 shots per 90, with this bet winning in nine of is 17 games for West Ham.
In six games against sides who finished last season in the top 5, he's fired 3+ shots four times and averaged 3.67 per 90. Add in the fact that West Ham are missing Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio, their two chief goal threats, and there's even more onus on Kudus here against what could be a much changed Villa starting XI.
Team news
Unai Emery could ring the changes here as his side prepare to play seven games in 22 days. Emi Buendia and Ian Maatsen should certainly be starters, though Morgan Rogers could be rested despite returning from suspension.
John McGinn is out with an injury, joining Pau Torres and Diego Carlos, while Jhon Duran is suspended for this one.
West Ham continue to be without Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio, while Emerson Palmieri is doubtful.
New manager Graham Potter could surprise us with some drastic changes for this game, making his team selection a tough one to predict. We know he likes paying a back three system, which potentially see Jean-Claire Todibo come in to the heart of defence.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Bogarde, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Barkley, Onana; Bailey, Buendia, Ramsey; Watkins
West Ham: Areola; Mavropanos, Todibo, Kilman; Wan-Bissaka, Soucek, Paqueta, Cresswell; Kudus, Summerville; Fullkrug
Odds correct at 1110 GMT (09/01/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
