Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Aston Villa to win and under 4.5 goals at 19/20 (Betway)
1.5pts Aston Villa clean sheet at 11/8 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
BuildABet @ 14/1
- Aston Villa to win
- Both teams to score: No
- Remo Freuler to commit 2+ fouls
- Stefan Posch to commit 3+ fouls
Can life get much better if you're an Aston Villa fan?
Victory at Fulham on Saturday was more than just a little poetic. It meant Villa have made their best start to a Premier League season since 1998, exactly two years since they were thumped 3-0 at the same ground, triggering the sacking of Steven Gerrard and subsequent arrival of miracle worker Unai Emery.
His side now return to Champions League action with the joy of ending Bayern Munich's seven-year unbeaten run in the group phase no doubt still fresh in their minds.
It built upon an opening 3-0 win at Young Boys that leaves Villa in a wonderful position.
Bologna won't be quite so chipper.
They made Liverpool work hard, but ultimately lost 2-0 at Anfield to leave them on one point having drawn 0-0 at home to a Shakhtar team 1/12 to lose at Arsenal on Tuesday evening.
Things haven't been much better in Serie A where they sit 13th after a win, six draws and a defeat.
We really ought not overthink this one.
What are the best bets?
While Aston Villa aren't as good as Liverpool, there's certainly a big price discrepancy from Matchday 2 to 3 when it comes to the 1X2.
The Reds were 1/6 for a home win over these same opponents while Villa are a considerably longer 4/7.
Bologna's remarkable seven draws from 10 fixtures this season could possibly be playing a part, but when twice faced with strong opponents away from home (Napoli and Liverpool) they have lost 3-0 and 2-0.
Keeping things simple and backing ASTON VILLA TO WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS at a best price of 19/20 is therefore advised.
Only one of Villa's eight wins in all competitions this season, a come-from-behind 3-2 victory over Everton, has not seen under 4.5 goals.
A home win to nil can be backed at 9/5 but I prefer to give ourselves the added insurance of a possible goalless draw, especially given Bologna's record this season, and take the sizeable 11/8 on offer for an ASTON VILLA CLEAN SHEET.
Emery's side have kept their opponents (Bayern Munich and Manchester United) out in their past two matches at Villa Park, while Bologna are yet to score in this season's Champions League.
The Italian club are really struggling for goals, scoring just nine times in 10 fixtures in all competitions with the underlying numbers (10.6 expected goals) not so different. That suggests creativity is the crux of their issues.
Team news
Aston Villa's recent injury crisis is beginning to abate, with captain John McGinn back and Boubacar Kamara and Tyrone Mings returning from long spells out.
Jayden Philogene's chances of involvement may have been boosted by his late sending off at Fulham, rendering him unavailable for Villa's next league game.
Bologna were without Switzerland duo Dan Ndoye and Michel Aebischer as well as on-loan Villa winger Samuel Iling-Junior and Croatia defender Martin Erlic at the weekend, leaving them all doubtful.
Scotland midfielder Lewis Ferguson, who should return soon, Nicolo Cambiaghi and Oussama El Azzouzi remain out.
Predicted line-ups
Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Ramsey; Watkins.
Bologna: Skorupski; Posch, Beukema, Lucumi, Miranda; Freuler, Moro; Orsolini, Fabbian, Karlsson; Castro.
Match facts
- Aston Villa and Bologna have never faced in any competition. The Villans have lost four of their six major European games against Italian sides, with the two wins both coming at home against Internazionale in October 1990 and September 1994, both in the UEFA Cup.
- After winning their first three games against English opponents in major European competition, Bologna have lost their last two such games, both away against Leeds United in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in April 1967 and to Liverpool in this season’s UEFA Champions League.
- Aston Villa have won both of their games in the UEFA Champions League this season – 3-0 v Young Boys and 1-0 v Bayern Munich. If they win here, they’ll equal their longest streak of victories in the European Cup/Champions League, last stringing together three consecutive wins in September-October 1981.
- Since the competition rebrand in 1992-93, Aston Villa could become only the third side to win their opening three games in the UEFA Champions League without conceding after Málaga in 2012-13 and Leicester City in 2016-17.
- Bologna are winless in their last four games in major European competition (D2 L2), and could become the first side to fail to score in their first three games in the UEFA Champions League since FK Austria Wien in 2013-14 (a run of four).
- Victory for Aston Villa will see Unai Emery pick up his 25th win in the UEFA Champions League, becoming the fifth Spanish manager to achieve as many wins in the competition after Pep Guardiola, Rafael Benítez, Vicente del Bosque and Luis Enrique.
- Only Feyenoord (606) have applied more pressures in the opposition’s half in the UEFA Champions League this season than Bologna (572), with 353 of them coming in the final third, only Manchester City (395) and Atlético Madrid (358) having more in 2024-25.
- Only Bremer and Kamil Piatkowski (both 5) have played more line-breaking passes breaking two or more lines among central defenders in the UEFA Champions League this season than Aston Villa’s Pau Torres (4). Indeed, it was a line-breaking pass that provided the assist for Jhon Durán’s winner against Bayern Munich last time out.
- Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers has completed more dribbles than any other player in the UEFA Champions League this season (9), with five of those coming against Bayern Munich last time out.
- Only Barcelona’s Iñigo Martínez (20) has completed more progressive carries over 10 metres in the UEFA Champions League this season than Bologna’s Dan Ndoye (19).
Odds correct at 1100 BST (21/10/24)
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