Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to win (draw no bet) at 6/4 (General)
1pt Kai Havertz to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 12/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 21/20
Aston Villa were simply sensational in their midweek victory over Manchester City. They won the xG battle 2.38-0.65 and the shot count 22-2, with Unai Emery's side dominant at both ends of the pitch.
Replicating that level of dominance is unlikely against a strong Arsenal team, but they may not need to be as good to get a result this weekend. A win here would see the Villans register a 15th straight home league win, highlighting just how strong they are at Villa Park.
The Gunners are top of the table but needed a very late goal to beat Luton on the road in midweek, with their away performances interesting to say the least this season.
They have won five of seven, but four of those victories have come by a single goal margin, highlighting they have just done enough to edge proceedings when travelling.
What are the best bets?
Their only two away games against top half teams this season has seen Mikel Arteta's side fail to win. They lost at Newcastle and should have lost at Chelsea, being 2-0 down before Robert Sanchez presented Declan Rice with an open net to turn the momentum in Arsenal's favour.
Performances in both have been poor, with the league leaders overrun in both contests and very blunt in attack too. They mustered just 1.06 xGF at Stamford Bridge and 0.54 at St James' Park.
Villa are in that category of team, and in fact, they are probably a step up on both, making this Arsenal's toughest away game to date.
Last season they won just one of four away against top five teams, at Newcastle, and struggled to create in all four. They averaged just 1.17 xGF per game in that admittedly small sample size, but that - along with displays this season against better teams - suggests the Gunners either have a creation issue away at top sides or they are more conservative in their approach.
Either way, the play for this game is to back ASTON VILLA DRAW NO BET.
Emery has his side flying at the moment. Their 14 straight wins have come with an aggregate score of 38-7, the expected goals aggregate reading 30.8 to 10.1 - an average of 2.20 xGF and 0.72 xGA per game.
That is elite, and I still don't think the market is giving the Villans the respect they deserve this season. Emery has a deep squad to rotate and freshen things up if he sees fit, which also can be seen as a positive.
Goalkeeper and manager worries
A final few points on why opposing Arsenal this weekend makes sense. Firstly, the goalkeeper. David Raya made a couple of shocking errors in midweek but got away with it because his side were playing Luton. The pressure is on him already with Aaron Ramsdale waiting in the wings for a recall, and Raya's shot-stopping -which he was known for at Brentford - has not been up to scratch.
He is underperforming his post-shot expected goals (PSxG) by 1.4 goals, meaning he has conceded more than he would have been expected to based on the chances he's faced. His error from the set-piece in midweek also sticks in the mind given Villa's strength from such situations.
Secondly, Mikel Arteta is suspended for this game so won't be on the touchline. Now, it may not seem like a big deal, but Arteta is one of the busiest, most vocal and most involved coaches on the sideline. His absence will have an effect on his team and any in game tactical switches that are required.
Hav it!
I also can't resist a play on KAI HAVERTZ TO BE CARDED at a whopping price of 9/2 - the same bet is 21/10 elsewhere.
Havertz is Arsenal's yellow card leader this season, collecting four in 15 appearances. Interestingly three of his cards have come in Arsenal's seven away games this season, the other in the North London derby.
The German has always been a player with a high foul count, averaging 1.60, 1.99, 2.11 and now 1.52 fouls per 90 over his past four seasons, so he's not afraid to put himself about, but with him playing in a deeper role as part of the Gunners' midfield three as opposed to a striker, he is getting punished more for his fouls.
Despite his average fouls per 90 being at it's lowest since he came to England, he has already nearly matched his highest yellow card tally, just one shy of the five he saw last season at Chelsea.
He looks majorly overpriced here given Aston Villa like to flood the midfield and create chaos in the half spaces where Havertz will be occupying. This is shown by the fact that Villa have drawn 2, 1, 0, 2 and 1 cards from opposing midfielders across their last five league games.
BuildABet @ 13/1
- Aston Villa +1 handicap
- Kai Havertz to be carded
- Oleksandr Zinchenko 2+ tackles
Oleksandr Zinchenko's tackle stats are through the roof this season. The Ukrainian averaged 1.7 tackles per game last season, but that figure is up to 2.8 this campaign, and he will be busy given his opponent will likely be Moussa Diaby or Leon Bailey.
The case for Havertz and a positive Villa result has been made above.
Team news
Midweek match-winner Leon Bailey could be replaced by Moussa Diaby for Villa this weekend, with Unai Emery potentially looking to freshen things up after a stacked schedule. Bertrand Traore (muscle), Emiliano Buendia (knee) and Tyrone Mings (knee) will not be available for Saturday.
Ezri Konsa played exceptionally well against Manchester City, and he could keep his place at right back ahead of Matty Cash.
As for Arsenal, Takehiro Tomiyasu confirmed to be out for "a while" with the calf injury he sustained against Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend, joining Emile Smith Rowe (knee), Fabio Vieira (groin), Thomas Partey (thigh) and Jurrien Timber (knee). Ben White will likely come in at right-back.
Mikel Arteta is suspended for this, meaning he won't be on the touchline Indeed, Arteta picked up his third yellow card of the season in the victory over Luton - allegedly for "excessively celebrating" Rice's injury-time winner - so the Gunners boss will not be on the touchline at Villa Park this weekend; Albert Stuivenberg will assume managerial duties on a temporary basis.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Diaby, Luiz, Kamara, McGinn; Tielemans; Watkins
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli
Match facts
- Aston Villa have lost their last four Premier League games against Arsenal, since winning three games in a row without conceding between July 2020 and February 2021.
- Arsenal have lost just two of their last 21 away Premier League games against Aston Villa (W12 D7), losing consecutively in 2019-20 and 2020-21.
- Against no side have Arsenal won more Premier League away games than they have against Aston Villa (14, same as West Ham), with their 14 wins at Villa Park also their joint-most at a specific away venue in the competition (also 14 at Selhurst Park – 9 wins vs Crystal Palace and 5 vs Wimbledon).
- Aston Villa are winless in eight Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table (D1 L7), losing each of the last five in a row. Their last such victory was in March 2014 (1-0 vs Chelsea).
- Aston Villa have won their last 14 home Premier League matches, a run stretching back to March. They’ve never won 15 consecutive home league games in their entire history, previous having 14 wins in a row ending in November 1903 and October 1931.
- Since the start of last season, Arsenal have won more away games (17) and more away points (55) than any other Premier League side. The Gunners have also conceded fewer goals on the road than any other ever-present side in that time (24).
- Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey has been involved in eight goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances (5 goals, 3 assists), scoring the winner against Man City last time out. The Jamaican hasn’t completed 90 minutes in any of those games, averaging a goal or assist every 63 minutes.
- Three of Unai Emery’s five meetings with Arsenal in all competitions have finished level (W1 L1). His only defeat against the Gunners came in his only game against them as Aston Villa boss so far, losing 4-2 in this exact fixture last season.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (07/12/23)
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