The Super Sunday clash in the Premier League sees Aston Villa host West Ham and Tom Carnduff is backing a big-priced goalscorer.
West Ham brought an end to Manchester City's long monopoly of the Carabao Cup with victory on penalties in midweek.
It continues a strong start to the campaign for David Moyes' men and they will be confident of victory as they go to an Aston Villa side who have struggled in recent weeks.
The hosts have lost their last three and were stunned by Wolves in their last game at Villa Park. They were 2-0 up in the 79th minute but left empty-handed after a 3-2 defeat.
An away win is priced up around the 6/4 mark and represents good value in the outright market. After all, West Ham have lost just two of their 14 competitive fixtures this season - nine of those have seen victory in 90 minutes.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
There is one area that could be a big mismatch in this game and that is set-pieces. West Ham continue to be strong at them but they have proven to be a problem for Villa this season.
The Hammers sit 5th in the Premier League for goals scored from corners and free-kicks this season - 25% of their goals have come from these situations - while only Crystal Palace have conceded more (7) than Aston Villa's six.
Set-pieces account for 40% of the goals conceded by Villa this season and they could be exposed here - particularly against a side who could post a high corner tally.
At a best price of 16/1, ANGELO OGBONNA TO SCORE ANYTIME looks an overpriced play given the circumstances. No West Ham player wins a higher number of aerial duels on average.
The centre-back struck against Everton a couple of weeks ago - who sit one place below Villa in the set-piece charts - while two of his three goals last season came against teams who sat in the top three for goals conceded from set-pieces.
That includes against Leeds which delivered a 12/1 winner when we backed the same bet in that game. It's clear that when they face sides who struggle to defend set-pieces, Ogbonna enjoys opportunities to strike.
There were the goals against Leeds and West Brom while games against Crystal Palace and Liverpool saw centre-back partner Craig Dawson score. Ogbonna registered a shot against Wolves and another against Sheffield United - all of those sides conceded double figures from set-pieces last season.
The score and win price on Ogbonna/West Ham is around the 20/1 mark - and while that is fancied to happen - the 16/1 anytime odds are good enough to back as a single.
First goalscorer boosts it to 40/1 with unlimited each-way places making the anytime above a 13/1 chance. West Ham look good for victory - especially when Infogol's model predicts they should be around the 7/5 mark - but OGBONNA is the best bet in this one.
Aston Villa v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Angelo Ogbonna to score anytime at 16/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (28/10/21)
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