West Brom make the short trip to Villa park to take on Aston Villa in the West Midlands derby. Jake Pearson has previewed the match and picked out two best bets.
Football betting tips: Aston Villa v West Brom
1.5pts Aston Villa to beat West Brom at 10/11 (General)
1pt Aston Villa (-1 handicap) to beat West Brom at 13/5 (Betfair)
Aston Villa have won just once in their last four matches, beating Fulham 3-1 at the beginning of the month, and though they have lost the other three fixtures, those defeats have come against Tottenham, Liverpool and most recently Manchester City.
Villa actually took the lead against Manchester City on Wednesday evening, with John McGinn putting the home side ahead in the first minute, but Pep Guardiola’s men responded well and were 2-1 up by half-time.
John Stones’ red card just before the half-time whistle presented Villa with a great opportunity to get something out of the game, but Matty Cash saw red himself for two cynical fouls on Phil Foden shortly after the restart.
That defeat leaves Aston Villa in 11th position, some nine points behind sixth-placed Tottenham, all but ending their hopes of a finish in the Europa League places.
Villa have undoubtedly struggled due to the absence of captain and talisman Jack Grealish recently, winning just two of their run of eight fixtures without the England international, and they will again be without the services of the Premier League’s most fouled player as they face West Brom on Sunday.
However, with or without Grealish, Villa are certainly in a far more enviable position than their West Midlands counterparts West Brom, who remain nine points from safety with a far worse goal difference than fourth-bottom Burnley.
End of the great escape?
After an astonishing 5-2 victory over Chelsea, followed by an impressive 3-0 hammering of Southampton, it looked as though Sam Allardyce had finally found the key to this West Brom team, and that perhaps the greatest of all great escapes was on the cards.
An assured performance by Leicester City on Thursday evening, however, brought Baggies fans crashing back down to earth, the Foxes running out comfortable 3-0 winners.
That was West Brom’s tenth away defeat of the season – only Sheffield United have lost more matches on the road this term – and it was a result that more or less condemned Big Sam’s side to a season of Championship football next term.
Value in Villa
Aston Villa’s home record is far from spectacular (W6-D2-L7), but they have undoubtedly been underestimated by the bookmakers on multiple occasions at Villa Park this term, returning a profit of roughly 3 units had you blindly backed Dean Smith’s side in every home fixture.
That, coupled with the fact that West Brom boast the second worst record on the road in the Premier League, means a price of just under even money for an ASTON VILLA WIN makes plenty of appeal.
Sam Allardyce has undoubtedly tightened things up at the back as far as West Brom are concerned, but as Leicester demonstrated recently, there are still goals to be had against this Baggies side, and considering Villa won the reverse fixture 3-0 earlier in the season, backing ASTON VILLA -1 (3-WAY HANDICAP) at a price of 13/5 with Betfair Sportsbook also makes a lot of sense.
Aston Villa v West Brom best bets and score prediction
- Aston Villa to beat West Brom at 10/11 (General)
- Aston Villa (-1 handicap) to beat West Brom at 13/5 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-0 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (23/04/21)
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