League Two high-fliers Stevenage head to Aston Villa in the FA Cup on Sunday and James Cantrill previews the game, picking out a 22/1 best bet.
Aston Villa will have considered themselves very lucky to grab a point in Unai Emery's first taste of a West Midlands derby in the Premier League on Wednesday.
Wolves stopper Jose Sa slipped at the crucial moment, leaving the goal gaping for Danny Ings who dispatched Villa's equaliser, meaning they maintain their unbeaten start to 2023.
This clash will provide Emery with the chance to shuffle his deck and assess his options as I think it is fair to say the FA Cup is not a priority of the hosts, though their supremo has made a habit of winning silverware, with 11 titles to his name and counting.
Stevenage, some 59 places below the Villans, are the definition of a banana skin, though, and must be handled carefully.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: BBC One Red Button
At 20/1 in places, that Stevenage price is very tempting. Steve Evans' more agricultural approach will certainly make things very awkward for their top-flight opposition.
The Boro are one of the best sides in the fourth tier, currently sitting just two points behind leaders Leyton Orient, and they have lost only one of their last 15 games domestically.
No doubt Evans will deploy a low block, probably in a 5-3-2 formation, and look to contain and counter - in fact, they may not even counter, just try and play for set-pieces, the ultimate leveller.
His team, as with most Evans sides, are very effective from dead-ball situations. They rank second in Sky Bet League Two for set-piece shots generated (109) and third for xG (7.54), scoring eight times.
Given his recent form, CARL PIERGIANNI looks worth a punt to SCORE ANYTIME.
The central defender has scored four goals this campaign, three coming in his last two appearances.
Piergianni has only failed to register a shot in five of his 23 league starts, having 40 attempts in total.
He has never scored an FA Cup goal but with a goals-per-90 career average of 0.10, I think his price of 22/1 is certainly worth taking on here, regardless of the opposition.
Aston Villa v Stevenage best bet and score prediction
- 0.5pts Carl Piergianni anytime goalscorer at 22/1 (SBK)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-1 Stevenage (Sky Bet odds: 33/1)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (06/01/23)
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