Aston Villa take on Southampton on Friday night. Tom Carnduff has two best bets - including one priced at a huge 25/1.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Armel Bella-Kotchap to have 1+ total shots at 29/20 (Ladbrokes)
0.75pts Armel Bella-Kotchap to score anytime at 25/1 (VBet)
The Premier League returns on Friday night and the televised game sees struggling Aston Villa welcome Southampton, who are slightly over-performing early expectations this season.
Villa have managed to gain just four points from their opening six games, with their only win coming against Everton on Gameweek 2. To give them credit, they did pick up a point against Manchester City in their last game.
They created very little though, posting 0.26 xG from their four shots while City were held to just the one goal despite 13 shots and 1.80 xG. It could well be another tricky test this time out.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Aston Villa 21/20 | Draw 5/2 | Southampton 5/2
Southampton can consider themselves a little unlucky that recent games against Manchester United and Wolves ended in defeats. They demonstrated enough in attack to score in both games.
They are capable of finding a way through this Villa defence, and a successful route for them could come in set-pieces with the hosts still struggling to defend them.
Those teams who had issues with these situations last season are seemingly having them again in 22/23, with Crystal Palace, Everton and Leicester all leading the way for set-piece xGA.
Villa aren't far behind them, and Southampton have shown that they can have opportunities towards goal from free-kicks and corners. James Ward-Prowse is a big reason why.
At a best price of 29/20, we're taking Saints centre-back ARMEL BELLA-KOTCHAP TO HAVE 1+ TOTAL SHOTS in this game.
A reminder that this bet concerns anything classified as a shot, it doesn't even have to be on target. He's adapted well to life in the Premier League with at least one shot in four of his five games so far.
The highlight was the huge amount of four in the narrow defeat to Manchester United. He finished that game with 0.62 xG - a real threat to the United defence.
Villa have conceded a total of 27 shots from set-piece situations this season, with opposition defenders Jefferson Lerma, Mason Holgate, James Tarkowski, Marc Guehi, Gabriel Magalhães all registering at least a shot.
In fact, the game against City this season was the first time at least one opposition centre-back hasn't had a shot. That underlines the issues they are facing in this area.
In case he has an effort that does go in, we're also having a smaller play on BELLA-KOTCHAP TO SCORE ANYTIME with a best price of 25/1 available and 20s elsewhere.
His threat as a Southampton player is underlined by the fact he has seven shots and 1.23 xG from his first five games, and yet there were ten shots and 1.37 xG from a full season with Bochum.
The centre-back has the right abilities to strike when these opportunities arise and placing him in the right environment to do so should bring its rewards in the Premier League.
Aston Villa v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Armel Bella-Kotchap to have 1+ total shots at 29/20 (Ladbrokes)
- 0.75pts Armel Bella-Kotchap to score anytime at 25/1 (VBet)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1450 BST (14/09/22)
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