There is one Premier League fixture squeezed into FA Cup fourth-round weekend as Aston Villa host Newcastle on Saturday night. Michael Beardmore looks at the betting.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa to win to nil 15/8
1pt Aston Villa 10+ corners 9/4
1pt Aston Villa 10+ shots on target 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Newcastle
- 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 5/1
Steve Bruce is no stranger to having things hurled at him at Villa Park – and the kitchen sink might be the next thing flying in his direction as the under-fire Newcastle manager takes on his former club.
Remarkably, more than two years have passed since a disgruntled fan threw a cabbage at then Villa boss Bruce before what proved to be his final game in charge, a 3-3 draw at Preston.
While it was harsh on Bruce – who gets far more stick than he perhaps merits – the unhappiness of Villa fans over the direction they were heading under him is very much mirrored by Toon followers now.
Embattled Newcastle – near the bottom in all sorts of performance statistics this season and drawing the wrath of their socially-distanced support – take on a Villa team very much operating at the opposite end of the spectrum.
In truth, the road Villa have taken since Bruce's departure does not reflect greatly on him – successor Dean Smith has transformed a club treading water in the Sky Bet Championship into one of the easiest teams on the eye in the top flight.
While a Villa win against a Newcastle team winless in nine is clearly the most likely outcome here – as reflected in the hosts’ general price of around 1/2 – the margin of victory is tougher to predict.
Newcastle have held Liverpool and Arsenal 0-0 over 90 minutes and limited Manchester City to a 2-0 win but also collapsed to 3-0 and 5-2 losses to the Gunners and Leeds respectively. However, the common factor in most of their recent games is the ‘nil’ in the goals for column – Newcastle have failed to score in six of their past seven in all competitions, five on the trot away.
Given they are facing the Premier League’s third tightest defence – a Villa backline that has conceded just five goals in their past seven games (and two of those were questionable refereeing/VAR decisions at Manchester United and Manchester City) – I am amazed Sky Bet are offering 15/8 on a home win to nil.
That has to be gobbled up and Villa’s propensity to bombard opponents for spells during games also opens up other avenues for profit. After feeling harshly done by in defeats to both Manchester clubs, they will be right up for this one, knowing a win, coupled with the games in hand they have on the sides above them, will get them right back in the hunt for European spots.
As the Infogol graphic below shows, no team in the Premier League this season has created more 'big chances' - attempts at goal with a 35% chance or more of scoring - than Villa. They are fashioning almost two of those opportunities per game.
Regardless of the score or circumstances, Villa have shown they will attack – with 10 men for half their match against Crystal Palace they had nine shots on target. Leading away at 10-man West Brom they showed no mercy, peppering the goal 10 times.
Villa - third in highest average shots attempted and shots on target per game in the division - tested Alisson 11 times in the unforgettable 7-2 destruction of reigning champions Liverpool and had 10 on-target efforts in a 4-3 home loss to Southampton.
Factor in Newcastle’s tendency to drop deep and invite the opposition on – only West Brom have faced more shots per game than the Toon’s 15.3 average – and the 5/1 Sky Bet offer on Villa to have 10 or more attempts on target looks worth a play. It’s 7/4 on 8+ if you want to go safer.
On a similar note, we have profited multiple times this season on Villa’s prowess in earning corners and it’s worth revisiting that area here given Sky Bet offer 9/4 on them hitting double figures.
Villa’s corner count for the past three home games – excluding the Palace match when they were a man light for 45 minutes – is 11, 12, 11. Given those numbers, 9/4 on 10 or more Villa corners looks good value.
This game should be one-way traffic and we can profit in several areas - outcome, shots and corners - in the likely event both sides' patterns continue.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Aston Villa v Newcastle best bets
Opta facts
- Newcastle have failed to score in their last three Premier League away games against Aston Villa (D2 L1) since winning 2-1 at Villa Park in September 2013.
- Aston Villa have scored at least three goals in three of their seven Premier League home games this season, as many as they had in their previous 62 at Villa Park before this term.
- Aston Villa are looking to keep three consecutive home clean sheets within the same Premier League campaign for the first time since December 2012 under Paul Lambert.
- Newcastle are winless in seven Premier League games (D2 L5), losing their last three in a row. The Magpies haven’t lost four consecutive Premier League games since May 2018.
- In their first seven Premier League games this season, Newcastle had converted 56% of their shots on target (10 goals from 18 shots on target). In their subsequent 11 fixtures, they’ve converted just 22% of them (8 goals from 36 shots on target).
- After netting six goals in his first seven Premier League appearances for Newcastle, Callum Wilson has scored just two in his subsequent nine for the Magpies.
Odds correct at 0920 GMT (22/01/21)
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