Aston Villa v Leicester
Dean Smith has overseen a remarkable turnaround at Aston Villa. The club narrowly avoided relegation last season, but are enjoying a more than impressive 2020/21.
They’re now eighth in the league, although they looked devoid of creativity at Brighton last time out – expected goals (xG): BRI 2.44 – 0.14 AVL. That was a rare lacklustre display from Villa, who previously had beaten Arsenal.
Villa have conceded an impressively low 1.41 expected goals against (xGA) this season, which is a strong defensive process, but it’s the quality of chances they’re preventing that also catches the eye.
- Expected goals process is the rate at which teams create and concede chances
Only three teams have conceded fewer big chances (>35%) than Villa – they’re brilliant at limiting their opposition's opportunities on goal.
The signing of Emiliano Martínez, phenomenal against Brighton, has been arguably one of the signings of the season, with the Argentine keeping 12 clean sheets – only Ederson (14) has more.
Worryingly, though, Villa’s attacking output has worsened recently, creating just 1.14 expected goals for (xGF) across their last five fixtures.
Leicester encountered creativity issues themselves in midweek, looking flat and uninspiring at Slavia Prague in the Europa League, fashioning just 0.43 xG.
That was after an exceptional 3-1 win over Liverpool. Fixture congestion could be catching up to the Foxes who have also suffered an array of injury problems.
Jamie Vardy is now available for Brendan Rogers after a period on the sidelines and, while this is a boost, it’s interesting to analyse Vardy’s goal-haul this term.
It’s hard not be taken by his longevity at the top level, but 37% of Vardy's xG total is actually accounted for by penalties this season.
Furthermore, half his tally (6) have been from the spot; he’s undoubtedly not as prolific as he once was. In all fairness, that’s normal for a 34-year-old.
I'm backing Villa’s reliable defence to keep him quiet here in what I'm expecting to be a low-scoring game.
Consequently, the 11/10 widely available for UNDER 2.5 GOALS makes great appeal, especially when considering Leicester played in Europe just three days prior to this fixture.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
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