Aston Villa look to close the gap on the Sky Bet Championship's top two when they face Leeds on Friday night and Tom Carnduff has 14/5 and 6/1 selections.
Aston Villa v Leeds United recommended bets
1pt Aston Villa to win both halves at 14/5
1pt Over 2.5 goals, over 10.5 corners and over 35 booking points at 6/1
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Aston Villa v Leeds United (1945 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)
Steve Bruce's Aston Villa welcome struggling Leeds United to Villa Park on Friday night as they look to record consecutive victories.
Victory for the hosts will see them secure a spot in the play-offs, and drags them to within two points of Fulham in second.
Villa will go into this one full of confidence as they find themselves as they third-best home side in the division. They've lost just two of their last ten at home, winning seven.
For Paul Heckingbottom's Leeds United, their away form has been abysmal and sees them without a win on the road since Burton Albion on Boxing Day.
They've secured just two victories from their last 15 league games, picking up eleven points from a possible 45.
That's why they sit as 13/2 outsiders coming into this one, with the draw at 7/2 and Villa best-priced at 4/7.
The Villa Park faithful have seen plenty of goals this season, with seven of their last ten at home in all competitions having over 2.5 goals.
For Leeds, five of their last six away have seen three or more goals, setting this one up to have goals aplenty.
Most Leeds supporters would probably agree that their defence has been nothing short of shambolic at times, with injuries and suspensions further depleting an already struggling defence.
Aston Villa to win both halves looks decent value at 13/4. Leeds' last two trips to teams in the top seven have seen the opposition win both halves, and given the fact that they now have little to play for, Leeds will be up against it for large parts of their trip to the West Midlands.
These two teams have also seen a high amount of corners in their last five games, especially the visitors. Leeds have seen an average of 15.2 corners (for/against), whilst Villa sit with an average of 11.6.
Opta facts
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last three home league matches against Leeds (W1 D2) since losing 1-0 in April 2002, with Mark Viduka scoring for Leeds.
- Leeds have lost just once in their last 10 league meetings with Villa (W4 D5), a 2-0 defeat in the Premier League in February 2004.
- Steve Bruce has never lost a home match against Leeds as a manager (W5 D2), facing a different manager each time (Venables, Gray, Blackwell, Wise, Warnock, Evans and Monk).
- Against the current Championship top six, Leeds have collected just three points from 11 games (W0 D3 L8), although one of those points was in the reverse fixture with Aston Villa.
- Villa have won 13 home league games this season, their best tally in a season since 1992-93 (also 13) – they haven’t won 14 since the 1983-84 campaign.
- Paul Heckingbottom has won just three of his last 27 Championship matches (D9 L15), losing six of his first 12 as Leeds boss (W2 D4).
The referee for this one is Tony Harrington, who isn't afraid to show a card when he's in charge. The last ten games he has officiated have seen an average of 42.5 booking points in each match, and he's shown eight cards combined in his last appearances for these two sides.
On average, Leeds have seen 53 booking points in their last five matches whilst that average sits at 51 for Villa during the same period. That means that this game could be one with a high corner and card count, which is where the value could be.
Combining the two (cards and corners) might help to create some value, and Over 2.5 Goals, Over 10.5 Corners, Over 35 Booking Points looks tempting at a price of 6/1.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3-0 Leeds United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals, Over 10.5 corners and over 35 booking points at 6/1
Alternative bet: Aston Villa to win both halves at 13/4
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Odds correct as of 1620 BST 12/04/2018
