Victory guarantees Chelsea third spot in the Premier League and Tom Carnduff picks out a best bet as they travel to Aston Villa.
Football betting tips: Aston Villa v Chelsea
2pts Mason Mount to have 1+ assists at 4/1 (Betfair)
Chelsea's hopes of a top-four finish are in their own hands with victory over Aston Villa guaranteeing them third place. It will also be the perfect preparation for the Champions League final against Manchester City next weekend and Thomas Tuchel will want his side at the top of their game from Sunday onwards.
Aston Villa's season will end in a bottom-half finish, and while they did beat Tottenham last time out, they have seriously felt the absence of Jack Grealish and they will be managing him ahead of the Euros taking place next month.
Chelsea are shorter than 1/2 victory here and, even with Grealish returning for the hosts, they should have enough to get the crucial three points required. Victory will represent the serious level of improvement under Tuchel following a poor first-half of the campaign under Frank Lampard.
Chelsea may be worth including in any Sunday 4pm accumulators but there is one price that sticks out to me when looking at the players markets. With some much attacking talent, and a number of Chelsea players short odds in the goalscorer market, value can be found in those markets linked to away goals.
Looking at the assists, a best price of 4/1 is available on MASON MOUNT HAVING 1+ ASSISTS in this game which looks generous based on his recent showings. The midfielder picked up assists in recent wins over Crystal Palace and Fulham.
Given Chelsea's need for victory in this game, he should start, even with the Champions League to come less than seven days later. It's likely he'll be in the attacking midfield positions but he can drop deeper if injury keeps N'Golo Kante out of an appearance at Villa Park.
Mount did get an assist against Fulham and his showings since then should have brought another. He registered two key passes in the win over Leicester and four in the home defeat to Arsenal before the FA Cup final.
Despite Mount only having five assists on his Premier League tally, his open play showings should have led to more. According to Infogol, Mount's expected assists (xA) figure stands at a significant 9.73. He's been creating opportunities but his teammates haven't finished as many as they should have.
At 4/1, given the circumstances surrounding the game, Mount looks a good bet to add to his assists tally. While trusted on some set-pieces, his ability to create from open play is likely to be his best opportunity for a helper in this game.
He could have had an assist against Leicester last time out. His pass to Timo Werner saw the Chelsea forward put the ball in the back of the net, but a VAR check showed that he was in an offside position when receiving the ball so the goal was ruled out.
I'd have little issue in including Chelsea in any Premier League accumulators for Sunday's action, but with the odds available, it is worth backing MOUNT to be involved in the away goals.
Aston Villa v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Mason Mount to have 1+ assists at 4/1 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1750 BST (20/05/21)
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