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Free betting tips: Sky Bet Championship - Aston Villa v Bolton Wanderers
Friday night football comes from the West Midlands as Aston Villa take on Bolton and we have three best bets at 4/1, 9/2 and 12/1.
Recommended bets
2pts Ahmed El Mohamady to score anytime at 12/1
1pt Josh Magennis to be shown a card at 4/1
1pt Jack Grealish, John McGinn and Conor Hourihane all to have 1+ shots on target each at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Bolton (Villa Park, 1945 BST, Sky Sports Main Event)
Just two points separates these two teams in the Sky Bet Championship table, although Aston Villa are odds-on favourites to secure all three on offer here.
Dean Smith won his only in charge game at Villa Park so far against Swansea, and maintaining that strong home form will be key if they are to push up the standings.
Villa look a better outfit under Smith's guidance. They may have been defeated by Norwich and by QPR last week, but they looked a real threat throughout at Loftus Road and could consider themselves unlucky not to pick up at least a point.
They're fancied to get back to winning ways here but the best bet is the 12/1 quoted in a place about Ahmed El Mohamady to strike for Aston Villa - a price that is far too bug for the position he is playing this season.
The 31-year-old is comfortable operating in either the right-back or right midfield roles, but has found himself playing in the latter of the two positions for Villa this season.
He has two goals and four assists to his name already and has established himself as a regular in this side.
The style of football that Smith looks to implement does require an impact from the wide positions, and that allows someone like El Mohamady to drive forward and join the attack.
His freedom to do so is revealed by a closer look at his stats. Sixty per cent of El Mohamady's attempts have come from inside the six-yard box so he's in all the right places to score while there's also a genuine threat from distance, too.
Elsewhere, there is value in backing Josh Magennis to be shown a card here given his track record so far this season.
The Northern Ireland forward has committed the most fouls out of any Bolton player - and by a considerable margin. His figure of 33 is well clear of Jason Lowe in second place, who only has 18.
That has caught the attention of the officials too, with Magennis having been shown four yellow cards so far this season.
In their defeat away at Middlesbrough, the hosts dominated play with over 60 per cent possession and Magennis was booked after committing the second of two fouls.
In Bolton's smash-and-grab victory over Derby, the Rams enjoyed 73.9 per cent possession and the forward was booked after two fouls in that game, while four fouls as Preston dominated against Bolton also saw him carded.
With all of that in mind and my expectation that Villa will control this game, 4/1 about Magennis picking up another booking looks good business.
Elsewhere, Jack Grealish, Conor Hourihane and John McGinn lead the way for Aston Villa in shots taken this season and the 9/2 quoted about all three having at least one short on target each is fair.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Bolton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Aston Villa have never lost a home league match against Bolton outside of the top-flight (P7 W3 D4 L0).
- Since a goalless draw in the FA Cup semi-final in the 1999-2000 season, all 27 matches between Aston Villa and Bolton in all competitions has seen at least one goal scored.
- Aston Villa have lost each of their last two league games, they haven’t lost three in a row since February 2017 (five successive losses).
- Bolton have managed just two goals in their last eight Championship games, failing to score in each of their two.
- Aston Villa manager Dean Smith has faced Bolton three times in the Championship and won all three matches.
- Phil Parkinson has lost both of his away matches against Aston Villa at Villa Park, losing 1-2 with Bradford City in January 2013 and 0-1 with Bolton last season.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (01/11/18)