Saturday's Premier League action kicks off with Aston Villa welcoming Arsenal and Tom Carnduff has a 66/1 goalscorer bet to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Rob Holding to score first at 66/1
1pt Rob Holding to score anytime at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Aston Villa v Arsenal
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 6/4
Arsenal's recent good form was brought to an end in a 2-1 defeat to Wolves in midweek. Not only did the result go against them, they saw two players shown straight red cards and that will cause some defensive issues for the trip to Aston Villa.
David Luiz was controversially sent off as he was adjudged to have clipped Wolves striker Willian Jose's ankles as he was through on goal. Bernd Leno's dismissal was less argued about, the Arsenal goalkeeper clearly handled the ball outside of his area.
With those suspensions, and Mat Ryan's injury meaning Arsenal could end up fielding third-choice goalkeeper Alex Runarsson, the temptation was to go with an Aston Villa win here. However, they were comfortably beaten at home by West Ham on Wednesday night.
The Hammers won 3-1 and had a huge total of ten shots on target from a total 20 efforts. Villa could only post two on target in reply. Dean Smith's men remain inconsistent but they are sat comfortably in mid-table, and even with Arsenal suspensions, the outright result is one to avoid.
There is a value goalscorer in this Arsenal team though and it's defender Rob Holding, someone who has become an established part of the backline under Mikel Arteta. He is yet to score this season but the statistics highlight how he should have had a couple on his tally by now.
Holding has had 12 shots in 19 appearances this season. It means his season expected goals (xG) figure currently stands at 1.31 yet a goal hasn't appeared from any of these chances. In the last meeting between these two, a 3-0 win to Villa, Holding had Arsenal's third-biggest chance of the game but it failed to challenge the goalkeeper.
These shots have been decent opportunities for a centre-back too. The shot against Villa carried an xG rating of 0.17, while he had efforts at 0.10 (v Southampton) and 0.14 (v Crystal Palace) in recent weeks. If Arsenal can deliver a set-piece to around the penalty spot then Holding will have a good chance to strike.
It's also a surprise to see Sky Bet offering an odds-against price on Holding having just the one shot here. The 5/4 looks a lot better than the 10/11 on Hector Bellerin when Holding is averaging more shots per game (0.6 to 0.4). Rather than take the shorter price, the odds available in the goalscorer market are worth going with here before they inevitably decrease in weeks to come if a goal finally comes.
It's a huge 66/1 that Holding grabs the first goal in this game with one anytime out there at 25/1. Both are general prices and available with a few bookmakers and both are worth backing, with smaller stakes on the first goalscorer given the big odds.
I'm staying away from the outright result here, not just because it's the early kick-off but also the unexpected nature of the two teams in recent weeks. Instead, with the usual markets sitting at odds-on prices, it's worth siding with Holding grabbing his first, overdue, goal of the season.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Aston Villa v Arsenal best bets
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (04/02/21)
Opta facts
- Aston Villa haven’t completed a league double over Arsenal since the first Premier League season in 1992/93 under Ron Atkinson, winning 1-0 in both games.
- Arsenal haven’t lost three league games in a row against Aston Villa since November 1993, when they lost their first three Premier League encounters with the Villans.
- Aston Villa have lost four of their last six Premier League games (W2), as many as they had in their previous 18 in the competition (W10 D4 L4).
- Arsenal lost their last match against Wolves, ending a seven game unbeaten run for the Gunners in the Premier League (W5 D2). They last lost consecutive league games in November/December, a run of three which began with defeat to Wolves.
- Aston Villa have conceded on average 1.6 goals per Premier League home game this season (14 goals in 9 games), in contrast to their away form which has seen them ship just 0.9 goals per game (10 in 11).
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