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Aston Villa and Brighton need to learn how to play like the heavy favourite
There can be no greater complement to the work of Unai Emery and Roberto de Zerbi than the deference now shown to Aston Villa and Brighton.
- Published prior to Aston Villa 3-1 Fulham & Brighton 1-1 Sheffield United
There is no greater threat to their progress, either.
Their opponents dig trenches. They hunker down, too fearful to come out and far too respectful to assume they can compete as equals, and as Emery and De Zerbi are discovering a place at the top table brings a whole new set of rules.
The tactical foundations of the two managers will need shifting to reflect their status as one of the big clubs.
'Press-baiting' problems
It is a journey every English club must make as they break through the blob in the middle and into the elite because, broadly speaking, the financial chasm within the Premier League these days has created a league of dominant possession versus humble counter-attacking.
Cross the divide, and you become a target for the reactive clubs who used to be your peers.
But this is a particularly acute problem for De Zerbi and Emery, who are the Premier League’s two biggest exponents of what’s been called ‘press-baiting’: encouraging the opposition to press onto you in order to evade the bodies and attack as if on the counter.
These ‘artificial transitions’ are the hallmark of the two coaches, hence why at Villa Park and the Amex you see that weirdest of modern trends: defenders standing still, with a foot on top of the ball, waiting for the other team to move.
Not all of them will, and indeed increasingly managers have worked out they should simply refuse to take the bait. That’s what happened last weekend as Everton (21% possession) and Nottingham Forest (27% possession) held their nerve, refused to budge, and left Villa and Brighton with no idea how to break them down.
Brighton's possession problem
It’s only going to get worse with time, and in Brighton’s case in particular it is already denting their 2023/24 season.
Everton hinted at what was to come in their 5-1 win at Brighton in May, but this season it was West Ham (22% possession) who started the trend in a 3-1 victory back in August, setting the template that was followed by Fulham (29% possession) in a 1-1 draw – and by Villa, who thrashed Brighton 6-1 at Villa Park.
That game implies at which of Emery and De Zerbi will react better to the new dynamic developing.
De Zerbi is uncompromising in his attacking setup and therefore particularly prone to dramatic collapses, while Emery is a considerably more reactive coach who tweaks things to expose flaws in the other team.
When Villa and Brighton go head to head, Villa will always be the team who sacrifice supposed principles and do what it takes to win.
Nevertheless Villa supporters might be worried about what the future holds after Forest made them look passive and stale before launching long balls over the top of Emery’s high line again and again.
Emery's midfield exposed
It was a perfect game-plan and a simple one, borrowed from Luton the week before who, despite losing 3-1, produced the clumsiest Villa display of the season to date.
The Luton and Forest games were eerily similar.
In both, Emery started Boubacar Kamara in the back three when Villa had the ball, and in both it meant Villa lacked numbers in central midfield to move through the thirds.
In both, Kamara was moved back into the middle at half-time and in both Leon Bailey came off the bench to provide some extra width, with Villa’s narrow 4-2-2-2 obviously too congested for a low block.
It was surprising to see Emery make the same mistake twice, but the half-time changes do at least show he is thinking of solutions to a new problem.
In future, Youri Tielemans – an excellent line-breaking passer – should be utilised more often to break the wall, while Bailey needs to be used to help Villa double up out wide and go around the defensive shell.
Brighton and Villa need to adapt
That’s what Liverpool have started doing when faced with a similar problem. Against Wolves, Everton, and then Luton on Sunday Jurgen Klopp has moved to a 4-2-4 when struggling to break teams down, using very wide wingers to pull the opposition formation out of position, in turn creating pockets of space centrally for the two strikers.
Pep Guardiola tends to do something similar when Manchester City are struggling, placing his wingers right out on the touchline or, occasionally, letting both full-backs overlap in the traditional manner.
Incidentally it’s also why he bought a player like Jeremy Doku, whose direct dribbling pierces straight through the lines and, going around the outside, creates danger in the penalty box.
Villa and Brighton can’t buy players like Doku, yet as they climb up from the middle-class into the elite their managers have to start looking at the likes of Guardiola and Klopp for inspiration.
They have to start building passing networks that do not rely upon the other team pressing onto you, and they have to become comfortable – and patient – when holding possession for long stretches.
Beating the lesser teams more important
This is not something Emery has previously been able to do.
His football has been successful when the under-dog – think of Sevilla or Villarreal shocking big clubs in Europe with goals from fast breaks – but it suddenly looked overthought and lethargic at Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain, clubs who are forced to hold the vast majority of possession whether the head coach likes it or not.
De Zerbi has a small amount of experience coaching how to break down humble and respective defensive setups from his 18 league games at Shakhtar Donetsk, before the outbreak of war cut short his time in Ukraine, but not enough to conclude Brighton will easily transition.
In fact, interestingly the concern when he arrived at Brighton was Shakhtar’s regular thrashings in the Champions League, which worried some pundits that his football would be too expansive and possession-centric to function at Brighton.
Instead, an issue is emerging that goes against instinct. Forget their ‘Big Six’ clashes, the ceiling for Brighton – and for Villa - depends upon learning how to play like the heavy favourite.
At 2pm on Sunday, Villa are at home to Fulham and Brighton host Sheffield United. Neither game is considered interesting enough to televise.
But it is their performances in supposedly easy matches such as these that will tell us whether Emery and De Zerbi can adapt to the new normal.
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