Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Arsenal to win and BTTS at 15/8 (General)
1pt Emerson Palmieri to be carded at 4/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Arsenal were top at Christmas for the second straight season, but can they go one better than last term and finish the campaign there?
Well, it seems there is going to be at the very least a three-horse-race for the title this season, with Liverpool top of the pile ahead of this game, but the Gunners can return to the summit with a win against a dangerous West Ham team.
The Hammers, fresh off a comfortable 2-0 win over Manchester United, have won five of their last seven league games, including at Arsenal's north London rivals Spurs.
However, there is a different feeling around the Gunners this season, and a trip to the Emirates is one of the more daunting games on everyone's fixture list nowadays.
What are the best bets?
I tipped ARSENAL TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE in their last home game against Brighton, and while it didn't win on that occasion, I see no reason to part with the sound logic - especially as the Seagulls missed a couple of big chances in that contest.
This bet has landed in 15 of the last 28 league games at the Emirates since the start of last season - a 53% strike rate that would give us implied odds of around 9/10.
We can back it at 15/8 for this game against a team in great form who have scored 14 times in nine away games, averaging 1.52 xGF per game.
David Moyes' side are dangerous, especially on the counter with Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paqueta and Jarrod Bowen, which would be a major issue were Arsenal to start Jorginho in the midfield pivot.
I think it's worth chancing again at a big price given Arsenal's below par clean sheet rate at home (seven in last 28).
A second bet I just cannot resist at a whopping 4/1 price is to go back in on a previously successful tip - EMERSON PALMEIRI TO BE CARDED.
It landed on these pages when we backed him to be cautioned at Spurs, and the price is shockingly big considering three factors.
Firstly, Michael Oliver is the man in the middle and he is a referee in form. His last outing saw him flash seven yellows and one red at Anfield, while overall this season he is averaging 4.6 cards per game.
Secondly, Emerson will be up against the tricky and direct Bukayo Saka, who is drawing an average of 2.5 fouls per 90 minutes this season.
Thirdly, Emerson has been among the cards this season. The Italian has collected seven yellows already this Premier League campaign in 17 appearances and a further two in six European contests.
BuildABet @ 70/1
- Arsenal to win
- Both teams to score
- Emerson Palmieri to be carded
- Ben White to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Three quarters of the bet builder have been discussed above, but a Ben White card boosts the odds considerably.
The Englishman has been busy the last few games, getting carded in both contests against tricky wingers. Similar could be on the cards again against Lucas Paqueta and an overlapping Emerson.
Team news
Arsenal have no new injury concerns heading into this game, the only absence being through suspension after Kai Havertz picked up his fifth booking of the season. Arteta could choose to deploy Jorginho in the midfield trident with Martin Odegaard and former Hammer Declan Rice, or give Emile Smith-Rowe a rare start centrally.
Jurrien Timber (knee), Fabio Vieira (groin), Thomas Partey (thigh) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (calf) are all still sidelined for the hosts.
Nayef Aguerd should be fit enough to take the place of ex-Arsenal defender Dinos Mavropanos at the heart of defence for the Hammers, with Michail Antonio the visitors' solitary injury absentee.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli
West Ham XI: Areola; Coufal, Zouma, Aguerd, Emerson; Ward-Prowse, Alvarez; Kudus, Soucek, Paqueta; Bowen
Match facts
- Arsenal have won 12 of their last 13 Premier League home games against West Ham, with the exception being a 2-0 loss on the opening weekend of the 2015-16 campaign.
- After winning three consecutive league games against Arsenal between February 2006 and April 2007, West Ham have won now just two of their last 30 against the Gunners (D6 L22).
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 12 home London derbies in the Premier League (W8 D4) since a 2-0 loss to Chelsea in August 2021. They’ve kept just one clean sheet in this run (2-0 v West Ham in December 2021), with both such matches this season finishing 2-2.
- West Ham have won their final league game in just one of the last seven calendar years (D2 L4), winning 4-1 at Watford in 2021. They’ve lost on the last four occasions they’ve finished the year with a London derby, since beating Charlton Athletic 5-0 in 2000.
- West Ham have won four of their nine Premier League away games this season (D1 L4), already more than they won on the road in the whole of last season (W3 D3 L13). However, the Hammers are without a clean sheet in their last 13 away from home in the league, shipping 31 goals in the process.
- Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has been involved in 18 goals in his last 17 home games in all competitions, scoring 11 and assisting seven. He’s also had a hand in three goals in his last four league games against West Ham (1 goal, 2 assist), though he did miss a penalty against the Hammers at the London Stadium last season.
Odds correct at 1345 GMT (27/12/23)
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