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Arsenal vs Porto betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Nico Gonzalez to be carded at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Porto (agg: 0-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: TNT Sport 1
Home 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Away 12/1
Arsenal have it all to do in this second leg, but given the form they are currently in, you have to think they turn this one around.
The Gunners are 1-0 down after an admittedly poor first leg showing, but that is their only blip across the last nine games, winning the other eight and scoring 33 times.
They undoubtedly have the firepower to put away a Porto team who aren't that of yesteryear. They languish seven points off the top of the Liga Portugal table, and are arguably of similar quality to Arsenal's group opponents - PSV, Lens and Sevilla - who the Gunners handled 12-0 combined at the Emirates.
I fully expect Mikel Arteta's team to turn this tie around, but at 1/5 to win the game and 4/11 to qualify, we have to dig elsewhere for value.
What are the best bets?
Porto's young midfielder NICO GONZALEZ looks overpriced to get CARDED again here.
Only since January has he forced his way into the starting XI, and in 10 starts he has accumulated four yellow cards, including in the first leg against Arsenal.
In total this season he has been carded eight times in 1362 minutes of action, averaging 0.53 cards per 90, so looks a big price at 11/4 - some firms go as short as 13/8 for the midfielder who has averaged 1.7 fouls per 90 this season.
Up against the likes of Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz and maybe even Leandro Trossard - all tricky players - and with his side set to be under pressure from the off here, the youngster could be in for a tough evening.
Overseeing proceedings is Frenchman Clement Turpin, and he has averaged 4.2 cards per game in Europe this term.
BuildABet @ 50/1
- Nico Gonzalez to be carded
- Kai Havertz to be carded
- A player sent off
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Believe it or not, Kai Havertz is Arsenal's most carded player this season, picking up eight yellows. His price certainly appeals alongside Nico Gonzalez for a BAB.
Clement Turpin has been running hot with the red cards of late. He has dished six red cards in his last nine appearances, so with stakes high and two sides who play an in-your-face style we could see someone taking an early bath.
The first leg saw a combined 36 fouls - one every two and a half minutes - to put into context the cynical nature of both sides, while it's also worth noting that six of Porto's last 16 matches have featured a sending off.
Team news
Gabriel Martinelli sustain a nasty cut to his foot a week ago, and having reportedly been seen at the Emirates on crutches over the weekend, the Brazilian looks set to miss out here. Oleksandr Zinchenko is back from injury though.
David Raya will be back in net for the Gunners after Aaron Ramsdale stepped in last weekend, only to make a horrific error.
Regarding Porto's availability, left-back Wendell has recovered from the blow which saw him substituted towards the end of the first leg, and star striker Mehdi Taremi is expected to be involved after missing the first leg with a thigh concern.
Twenty-one-goal striker Evanilson is not droppable, though, so Francisco Conceicao might have to be sacrificed to accommodate Taremi's return, and the Porto defence will once again be marshalled by the veteran Pepe, still going strong at 41 years of age.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Jorginho, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Jesus
Porto: Costa; Mario, Pepe, Otavio, Wendell; Varela, N. Gonzalez; Conceicao, Pepe, Galeno; Evanilson
Match facts
- Arsenal have won all three of their home meetings with FC Porto in all competitions by an aggregate score of 11-0, most recently a 5-0 win at the Emirates Stadium in March 2010.
- Porto have won just one of their 23 away games against English sides in all European competition (D3 L19). However, that sole victory came in Spain against Chelsea in April 2021 (1-0), with the Portuguese side winless in all 22 such visits to England.
- Arsenal have been eliminated from nine of their 10 previous UEFA Champions League knockout stage ties in which they’ve lost the first leg. However, the one exception did come against FC Porto in 2009-10 (1-2 away, 5-0 home), which was also the last time they progressed past the round of 16 in the competition.
- FC Porto have progressed from three and been eliminated from three of their previous six UEFA Champions League knockout stage ties in which they’ve won the first leg. They’ve never won both legs of a knockout tie in the competition before.
- Arsenal are looking to reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-final for the first time since 2009-10. They’ve been eliminated from the round of 16 more than any other side (9 – FC Porto and Real Madrid at 8), including each of their last seven appearances in the competition.
- Arsenal have lost each of their last five home games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, with each of these coming in the round of 16. They’d only lost two of their previous 17 such matches in the competition (W10 D5).
- FC Porto have won just two of their 22 away games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, with both of those victories coming in Spain – against Deportivo de La Coruña in the 2003-04 semi-final, and against Chelsea in Seville in the 2020-21 quarter-final.
- Arsenal have won all three of their UEFA Champions League home games this season by an aggregate score of 12-0. They’ve never won four in a row at home without conceding in the competition.
- Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has both scored and assisted a goal in all three of his UEFA Champions League home appearances so far. The only player to do so in four consecutive home games in the competition is Karim Benzema, who did so in the 2011-12 campaign for Real Madrid.
- Galeno has been involved in eight goals in six UEFA Champions League appearances for FC Porto this season (five goals, three assists), netting the winner against Arsenal in the first leg. Jackson Martínez (2014-15 quarter-final v Bayern Munich) and Jardel (1999-00 quarter-final v Bayern Munich) are the only players to score in both legs of a knockout stage tie in the competition for the club
Odds correct 1700 GMT (11/03/24)
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