Football betting tips: Carabao cup
2.5pts Jurrien Timber 2+ tackles at 8/11 (bet365)
1pt Jurrien Timber 3+ tackles at 2/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 14/1
- Arsenal to win
- Under 4.5 Goals
- 40+ booking points
- Jurrien Timber 3+ tackles
- Joelinton to be carded
Arsenal dropped yet more points last time out against Brighton, a draw that proved a huge missed opportunity in the Premier League title race given Liverpool went on to draw themselves.
Mikel Arteta once again played the blame game, but now must get his side focused on this Carabao Cup semi-final first leg against one of the country's most in form teams.
Newcastle, Carabao Cup runners-up in 2022/23, are in red-hot form, winning all of their last six including victories over three of last season's top eight.
Eddie Howe's men also beat Arsenal in their only meeting this campaign, so will head to the Emirates in a confident mood, even if they are missing key player Bruno Guimaraes through suspension.
I suspect we could be in for a pretty cagey and gritty first leg, with few goals but plenty of fouls, tackles and cards.
What are the best bets?
Newcastle's biggest attacking threat is their left hand side, with Anthony Gordon, Lewis Hall and Joelinton proving a handful for opponents. They create chances, win fouls and draw a lot of tackles, and that's the angle to exploit here.
JURRIEN TIMBER, the Gunners' Mr. Utility this season, should come back in at right back after missing the weekend draw through suspension, and he will look to get stuck in to Gordon, with his prices to make 2+ and 3+ tackles appealing.
- CLICK HERE to back Jurrien Timber 2+ tackles with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Jurrien Timber 3+ tackles with Sky Bet
When starting at right back this season, the Dutchman has averaging 2.27 tackles per 90, covering the lower line in five of those eight games and the higher line in four of those eight.
In Newcastle's 10 games since the November international break, the opposing right back has made at least two tackles nine times and at least three tackles seven times, averaging a whopping 3.36 per 90.
At the prices, we simply have to snap up these bets early. It's 8/11 for Timber to make 2+ tackles, with the same bet 1/3 in places, and a huge 2/1 for 3+ tackles, with that priced at 10/11 elsewhere.
Interestingly it was Thomas Partey who played right back in the league meeting between these two sides and he racked up three tackles.
Team news
Arsenal's young winger Ethan Nwaneri joined the Gunners' growing injury list last time out, suffering a muscular injury. He joins Bukayo Saka, Raheem Sterling, Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu, while Kai Havertz is touch and go after missing back-to-back games with illness.
Jurrien Timber is back and available here though after missing out at the weekend through suspension.
As for Newcastle, they will be missing key starters for this game, with both Bruno Guimaraes and Fabian Schar suspended for the trip to the Emirates.
Callum Wilson, Emil Krafth, Nick Pope and Jamaal Lascelles are all out, while it would be a surprise to see Sven Botman start successive games after returning from a long absence through injury, meaning Lloyd Kelly should come in to partner Dan Burn at centre-back.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Martinelli, Jesus, Trossard
Newcastle: Dubravka; Trippier, Kelly, Burn, Hall; Longstaff, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Isak, Gordon
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (06/01/25)
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