Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Jakub Kiwior to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
BuildABet @ 16/1
- Jakub Kiwior 1+ shots on target
- Arsenal 7+ corners
- Crystal Palace 30+ booking points
If you'd have told an Arsenal fan in the summer that Manchester City would be sat fifth in the Premier League table after 16 games of the season they'd firmly believe it was their time.
Yet the Gunners are third. A campaign that was once again meant to compete for the top spot sees them trailing leaders Liverpool by six points - a side who also hold a game in-hand.
Just what that iffy league form means for their focus on domestic cup competitions remains to be seen. Arsenal have won just three of their last nine in the league - hardly the showings of a title-worthy side.
Bolton and Preston proved to be no real test, as you'd expect, in the previous rounds but they now face a Crystal Palace outfit who have pulled themselves together after a shaky start.
It's also the first of two meetings between these sides this week with the league meeting at Selhurst Park taking place on Saturday.
With expected changes and the short odds on offer, I'd be avoiding the match market completely. That doesn't mean there aren't betting opportunities though.
What are the best bets?
Arsenal have become the set-piece kings of the Premier League, with much focus put onto their ability to strike from dead ball situations.
Nicolas Jover is becoming just as well known as Mikel Arteta. The set-piece coach has clearly played his part, although what it has highlighted is the over-importance people put on these roles.
Corners remain low-probability chances to score as a general average yet they are becoming increasingly useful as teams look to creativity rather than simply launching it in and hoping a bigger player gets the contact.
It's why Arsenal have created a total of 9.00 expected goals (xG) from set-pieces this season - the most in the league by far.
JAKUB KIWIOR should get a start here and the 14/1 for the centre-back to score anytime is well worth consideration.
He's been limited to a handful of starts this season but has played the full minutes in both Carabao Cup contests. The win over Bolton also delivered two shots.
Kiwior brings a solid aerial presence and wins his fair share of duels, with a handful of shots coming during recent appearances for Poland where he features during the international breaks.
In Palace, Kiwior and Arsenal face a side who rank fifth for highest xG allowed at set-pieces, with their average per game working out at 0.34.
Against other solid set-piece sides, they've conceded chances to opposition centre-backs. Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham all saw at least one centre-back attempt a shot.
With the Gunners expected to be on the front foot and running up the corner count as usual, Kiwior should see opportunities to strike.
Team news
Arteta is likely to rest Declan Rice after he was forced off due to a minor injury in their draw with Everton last time out.
Riccardo Calafiori, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko are all sidelined through injury, while goalkeeper Neto is cup-tied so can't be involved.
While Tommy Setford was given the nod in goal in the last round, David Raya is expected to feature in his place.
Joel Ward and Adam Wharton missed Palace's weekend win at Brighton and the same is likely to apply for Wednesday's trip to the Emirates.
Daniel Munoz picked up his fifth yellow of the Premier League season last time out but that only applies to England's top-flight so he will be available for selection here.
Eddie Nketiah could face his former side from the start, as could goalkeeper Matt Turner.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal XI: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Tierney; Nwaneri, Jorginho, Merino; Saka, Jesus, Sterling.
Crystal Palace XI: Turner; Guehi, Chalobah, Lacroix; Munoz, Hughes, Lerma, Mitchell; Sarr, Eze; Nketiah.
Match facts
- Arsenal were knocked out of the League Cup by Crystal Palace in a fourth round replay in 1970-71 but eliminated them 5-1 on aggregate in the 1992-93 semi-final before going on to lift the trophy that season.
- Since beating Arsenal 3-0 in April 2022, Crystal Palace have lost their last four games against the Gunners by an aggregate score of 12-1, with all these meetings coming in the Premier League.
- Arsenal have been eliminated by a fellow Premier League side in each of the last eight seasons in the League Cup and the Gunners have lost eight of their last 11 home games in the competition against Premier League teams (W3).
- Crystal Palace have reached the League Cup quarter-final for the first time since 2011-12 under Dougie Freedman. Palace have progressed from four of their last five ties at this stage, including each of the last four against top-flight opposition.
- 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri has scored three goals in two League Cup matches for Arsenal this season, scoring with three of his four shots on target. He’s only misplaced three out of 84 passes in the competition (96.4% accuracy), the second-best pass accuracy of any midfielder in the competition this season to attempt 65+ passes.
- Eberechi Eze has been involved in seven goals in his last five League Cup appearances for Crystal Palace (2 goals, 5 assists), scoring or assisting every 38 minutes across these games.
Odds correct at 1655 GMT (17/12/24)
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