Arsenal host an out of sorts West Ham on Wednesday, and Jake Osgathorpe is wanting to get the hosts onside.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Arsenal to win at 6/5 (General)
Arsenal have made the Emirates a fortress this season.
Not only have they impressed from a results perspective, winning six of eight, but their performances at home have been excellent.
On the road they have been woeful based on underlying numbers, but in home matches, only Manchester City and Liverpool have been better than the Gunners.
They swatted Southampton aside with ease at the weekend, and the convincing victory now means that Mikel Arteta's side boast an xG process of 2.12 xGF and 1.03 xGA per game in front of their own fans.
Only the current top three in the league table can better that process, while only City (19.5) and Liverpool (18.3) have collected more expected points (xPoints) at home than Arsenal (16.4).
A visit of an out of sorts West Ham gives the Gunners a perfect opportunity to add to that tally, even without Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who was stripped of the Arsenal captaincy on Tuesday.
The Hammers sit fourth in the table after a goalless draw with Burnley, but have won just one in five, and that run has been backed up by poor performances.
Over their last six, David Moyes's side have averaged just 0.83 non-pen xGF per game, the third-worst attacking process in that time.
They haven't been much better defensively either during that period, allowing 1.57 non-pen xGA per game, so they really are on the back foot heading to face a formidable home team.
With all of that considered then, backing an ARSENAL WIN seems the obvious play at an odds-against price.
Arsenal's backline looks solid, while West Ham's attacking play has stalled, so I'm happy to get the hosts onside given just how good they have been at the Emirates this term.
Arsenal v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Arsenal to win at 6/5 (General)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (14/12/21)
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