Sunday's Premier League action concludes with West Brom's trip to Arsenal and Tom Carnduff has picked out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Arsenal v West Brom
2pts Mbaye Diagne to have 2+ offsides at 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
West Brom were unable to secure victory over Wolves on Monday, a result that pushed them closer to their inevitable relegation back to the Sky Bet Championship. They could be even closer to having their relegation status confirmed by the time this game arrives - they are ten points behind Newcastle and Burnley with 12 left to play for heading into the weekend.
Arsenal are facing an uphill battle to break into the European places again as their disappointing domestic campaign reaches its conclusion. Gaining more points away than at home may be fine while supporters are away but it's an issue that will need to be addressed next season.
The Gunners are an expected odds-on price for victory here, and as much as West Brom have struggled, they've only lost one of their last five. With time, Sam Allardyce has turned them into a semi-competitive outfit and they will believe their best chance of promotion back to the top-flight is if he stays.
Value in the stats market
With Arsenal such a heavy price for victory, the odds do lengthen when it comes to West Brom players and the stats markets are where the best bet can be found for this game. A market often overlooked is the offsides, but the Baggies' forward line could be caught out here.
More specifically, the player who has struggled with offsides the most is MBAYE DIAGNE, and there is a 4/1 best price out there on DIAGNE TO HAVE 2+ OFFSIDES in this game. Given his record during his time at the Hawthorns, this looks excellent value.
It's been one thing that has really stood out to me when watching West Brom games during the second-half of the season and the statistics back up what we have been seeing on the pitch.
On average, Diagne sees three times as many offsides per game (1.2) than the next closest player in the West Brom squad (Matheus Pereira with 0.4). In 14 appearances this season, the striker has been caught offside at least once in 11 of those games.
The highest amount he has seen is four in the away defeat at Tottenham. What has been the case throughout his Baggies career though is the fact that he has been offside on a regular basis. While he has only been here for half the campaign, he averages the highest number of offsides per game in the Premier League.
Of course, it depends on the flow of the game and the fact that Arsenal are expected to dominate possession but that should only help the case for Diagne being caught offside as West Brom look to hit them on the break. Aubameyang, who has 0.5 offsides per game, is a much shorter 5/4 to hit the same figure.
I'd be more confident in the potential for offsides in a game such as this as opposed to one where they were more fancied to win. They're going to look to hit Arsenal quickly and that could lead to Diagne going too early. At 4/1, the price is just too generous.
Arsenal v West Brom best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Mbaye Diagne to have 2+ offsides at 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1640 BST (06/08/21)
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