Arsenal host Villarreal in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Europa League betting tips: Arsenal v Villarreal (agg: 1-2)
1pt Arsenal to win at 8/9 (VBet)
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 5/6 (SportNation)
A Nicolas Pepe penalty gave Arsenal a lifeline in Spain last week with the Gunners 2-0 down at the time, and having just 10 men left on the field after Dani Ceballos’ red card.
As poor as Arsenal were that evening, that goal means this tie is a long way from being over. In fact, it puts Mikel Arteta’s side in a decent position as they welcome Villarreal to the Emirates.
Arteta made changes ahead of Arsenal’s Premier League fixture against Newcastle on Sunday, but the Gunners were mightily impressive at St James’ Park, comfortably sweeping aside a team who had turned the corner with some big wins.
Goals from Mohamed Elneny and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang provided Arsenal with a 2-0 victory and, crucially, momentum ahead of the second leg of what is undoubtedly the biggest game of Arsenal’s season.
Villarreal backed up their victory over Arsenal with a 1-0 win against Getafe at the weekend, but they were arguably lucky to come away with all three points on that occasion, creating very little in the way of clear-cut opportunities, posting an expected goals tally of just 0.23.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
Despite winning the match, Villarreal will be disappointed with the result against the Gunners last week. They were two goals to the good and with a man extra, but still conceded that all-important away goal.
It puts Unai Emery’s side in a precarious position ahead of the second leg, something that could play into Arsenal’s hands.
If Villarreal sit back and protect their lead, they invite unnecessary pressure, but if they step on to Arsenal, Arteta's side have enough speed to exploit the spaces the Spanish outfit will leave.
Despite being behind in the fixture, the Gunners are actually in a pretty good position ahead of the second leg, and a price of 8/9 for an ARSENAL WIN seems a little big, particularly given this is surely make or break for Arteta.
Side with goals at the Emirates
For all Arsenal’s tribulations in the Premier League this season, they have performed well in the Europa League, winning nine of their 13 matches in the competition, scoring 33 times.
It will be difficult for Villarreal to stop Arsenal scoring in this match, particularly with Aubameyang now back in form, but Villarreal have hardly been bereft of goals in this competition either, scoring 30 goals in their 13 matches. Emery’s side are also the joint-fourth highest scorers in La Liga this season.
There is a lot at stake for both clubs in this match, so goals are expected.
OVER 2.5 GOALS is currently available at a standout price of 5/6, and I'd suggest you get behind that as quickly as possible. It may not last long.
Arsenal v Villarreal best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Arsenal to win at 9/10 (VBet)
- 1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 5/6 (SportNation)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Villarreal (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1200 BST (05/05/21)
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