Tuesday's televised Premier League action sees Arsenal host Newcastle. Liam Kelly previews the game and provides a best bet.
Arsenal's dream season continued on Saturday evening, beating Brighton 4-2 to move seven points clear at the top of the table following Manchester City's unexpected draw with Everton.
That was another excellent performance from the Gunners (xG: BHA 1.40 - 3.37 ARS), who are masking the loss of Gabriel Jesus with relative ease if their post-World Cup matches are anything to go by.
This might be their toughest game thus far, however, facing a Newcastle side that are sitting pretty in third place despite a disappointing result last time out.
If Newcastle's title chances were to be taken seriously before their 0-0 draw with Leeds, which seemed silly in spite of a spectacular start to the campaign, missed chances against the Yorkshire side can likely put an end to such discussions (xG: NEW 2.85 - 0.53 LEE).
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Tuesday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Zero points at the Emirates Stadium would certainly shun Newcastle from the conversation, which looks far more likely than the odds suggest in my mind.
Indeed, ARSENAL TO WIN appears an outstanding value bet at a general 5/6. It's difficult to understand why Mikel Arteta's men would only be a shade of odds-on and not shorter given their current form.
Arsenal hold a perfect 100% home record this season, too, performing at an exceptional level by averaging 2.54 expected goals for (xGF) and 0.81 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
Additionally, Newcastle's displays away from home have not been as good as results suggest according to the underlying numbers.
Despite picking 15 points from eight fixtures on the road, Eddie Howe's side hold solid but unspectacular +2.0 expected goal difference (xGD), way below the level of their St. James' Park form.
Travelling to face the best team in the league at present might be a reality check for Newcastle on the short turnaround.
Arsenal v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 3pts Arsenal to win at 5/6 (General)
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (01/01/23)
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