Arsenal v Man City FA Cup semi-final stats preview: Wasteful Gabriel Jesus & clinical Aubameyang could be the difference

Manchester City are guaranteed to finish second in the Premier League. Gabriel Jesus is a different kind of runner-up. The Brazilian has scored in his last three games but, while he does not figure in the top 10 of Premier League scorers, he stands second in the expected goals charts.

Only Mohamed Salah ‘ought’ to have scored more. Jesus’ xG of 19.57 stands against an actual total of 13. It makes him, according to the numbers, the second most wasteful player in the league, behind only his rival to lead the line for the Selacao: Roberto Firmino’s xG is 8.28 higher than his goal tally.

Arsenal v Man City

• Saturday 7.45pm - BT Sport 1
• Match Odds: Arsenal 8/1 | Draw 9/2 | City 3/10

As City head to Wembley to face Arsenal, it is with Jesus as both an FA Cup talisman, after a semi-final winner and a final brace last season, and with enduring questions if he is able to replace the injured Sergio Aguero on a more permanent basis.

Pep Guardiola admires his teamwork, his versatility and his pressing. The numbers show his capacity to get into scoring positions, and in a team who create plenty of chances, is admirable. They also suggest he tends to be the most inefficient forward around. Along with Tammy Abraham, he tops the list for most big chances missed this season, with 22. He ranked third in it last season. In 2018-19, Jesus underperformed his expected goals by 5.62, the highest total in the division.

Over two seasons, he should have had 12 more league goals. In four seasons in the Premier League, he has underperformed his expected goals every year. The contrast with Aguero, who has overperformed his expected goals in five of the last six seasons, is stark and indicates City need a clinical finisher when the Argentinian leaves next summer.

Gabriel Jesus goal scorer odds: First 7/2 | Last 7/2 | Anytime 6/5

Resistable force v moveable object

The temptation is to bill Saturday’s clash between Jesus and the Arsenal defence as the resistable force against the moveable object. That may be unfair, in that Arsenal have only conceded five goals in seven games since the defeat to Brighton and Mikel Arteta has brought more organisation. Yet a capacity for individual errors was summed up when these teams last met: in his 25-minute cameo at the Etihad Stadium in June, David Luiz was at fault for two goals, conceded a penalty and was sent off. Nor was it an anomaly: the Brazilian leads the way in the division after giving away four spot kicks: that three went to Liverpool, Chelsea and City suggests he struggles against the best.

Luiz is a reason why only Leicester have conceded more Premier League penalties. There are times when their various defenders’ capacity to make mistakes – and Sead Kolasinac and Shkodran Mustafi both blundered in the loss to Tottenham last week – means Arteta’s task is to stop Arsenal being Arsenal.

Certainly the manner of that derby defeat highlighted old failings. Arsenal’s defensive record is actually respectable in open play but Toby Alderweireld headed Spurs’ winner from a corner and only Norwich and Aston Villa have let in more set-piece goals. City will probably field a relatively short team on Saturday but Kevin de Bruyne’s expert delivery means they have scored the joint most goals from dead-ball situations; plus, aided by David Luiz, the second most from penalties.

A Penalty to be taken in Arsenal v Man City - Evens

Yet hope for Arsenal can come in several respects. Emi Martinez boasts the best save percentage, at 82.9, of any goalkeeper with more than one stop in the Premier League. Their Wednesday win over Liverpool, when the new champions had 24 shots to Arsenal’s three, offers a blueprint of how to beat City. Arsenal scored from both shots on target.

Arteta’s time as Guardiola’s assistant acquaints him with the types of defeats City have suffered, even if they have been more familiar since his December departure. If Arsenal can defend well, they have the attacking attributes to exploit them.

In particular, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang does.

City’s losses tend to come to quick counter-attackers who are clinical: Wolves scored twice through the electric Adama Traore as they had 24 percent of possession and two shots on target at the Etihad in October. Norwich got three goals from three shots on target, Tottenham two from three, Manchester United two from two.

Look at the profile of players City concede to – Traore, Heung-Min Son, Steven Bergwijn, Anthony Martial, Sadio Mane, Salah – and there are common denominators: extreme pace and a position that means they do not operate as centre-forwards as much as narrow-ish wide players, using their speed in the channels.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang goal scorer odds: First 13/2 | Last 13/2 | Anytime 21/10

It all suggests that Aubameyang assumes a particular importance. The Arsenal captain is the anti-Jesus. He has 20 goals from 39 shots on target this season – five fewer than Jesus has had. Whereas the City forward underperforms expected goals, Aubameyang overperforms them: he has 20 goals from an xG of 14.90.

Along with Jamie Vardy, Danny Ings and Mason Greenwood, Aubameyang is in the group of players who have scored far more goals than they ought to have done. In a game when Arsenal are likely to have less possession and fewer chances, a contrast between the profligate and the prolific offers their hope of springing a shock.

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