Arsenal host Liverpool on Saturday night, with the pair looking at getting back into the race for European football. Jake Osgathorpe previews the clash, providing a best bet.
Premier League betting tips: Arsenal v Liverpool
- 2pts Liverpool to win at 6/5 (General)
Arsenal had a roller-coaster week before the international break, impressing greatly in victory in the North London derby over Tottenham, losing at home in the Europa League against Olympiakos and going 3-0 down against West Ham.
Fortunately for the Gunners’ slim chances of qualifying for Europe through the Premier League, Mikel Arteta’s side came back from that deficit at the London Stadium to draw 3-3.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 21/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 6/5
However, that run of results showcased why Arsenal are still Arsenal.
From the highs and the promise of the derby win, to the same old defensive issues at West Ham.
They remain a work in progress under Mikel Arteta, and they are progressing despite the results being up-and-down.
Is Arteta improving Arsenal?
Since a Boxing Day win over Chelsea, the Gunners have collected the fourth most points in the league, ranking as the sixth best team based on expected goals (xG).
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
Over that period, they have boasted the sixth best xG process, averaging 1.70 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.23 expected goals against (xGA) per game, and those numbers represent the most positive underlying process since Arsene Wenger left Arsenal.
Somewhat surprisingly though, their better performances during that 15-game spell have come on the road, with the Gunners ranked as the ninth best home team since Boxing Day.
They host a Liverpool team this weekend who appear to have turned a corner after a shocking run of results that mainly came at Anfield.
Have Liverpool turned the corner?
The Reds have won four of their last seven matches in all competitions, and all four of those victories have come to nil and have occurred away from Anfield, including beating RB Leipzig twice in Budapest.
While Jurgen Klopp’s side's chances of qualifying for next seasons Champions League through the Premier League appear slim, being five points behind fourth placed Chelsea, momentum could be key for the Reds in their bid to finish the season in a flourish.
They’ve had major issues defensively through injuries, but the issues have been hampered even further in my opinion by Klopp’s reluctance to play centre-backs at centre-back.
Ultimately, Klopp weakened two positions by playing Jordan Henderson and Fabinho at centre-back instead of their familiar midfield roles, and since returning them to their usual positions (Henderson did get injured), Liverpool have looked more like themselves.
Despite winning only six of 14 away games this season, only Manchester City have a better xG process away from home than Liverpool, with no Premier League team posing more of an attacking threat on the road than the Reds (1.94 xGF per game).
They will be looking to continue gaining momentum, and with Diogo Jota back fit, a front three of him, Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane looks very dangerous.
Reds look value
While Arsenal are improving, they are still well short of this Liverpool team.
The Reds have had no issues in attack this season away from home, and their recent mini-resurgence defensively is a pleasing sight for Liverpool fans.
Despite them having a huge Champions League game on Tuesday in Madrid against Real, I think Liverpool field a strong team here, in which case, the 6/5 generally available looks a cracking bet.
LIVERPOOL TO WIN appeals greatly, and it is very rare that you would see them at odds against for any game, making me believe that they are being underestimated at the Emirates.
Arsenal v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool to win at 6/5 (General)
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 0820 BST (01/04/21)
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