Liam Kelly previews Leeds' trip to face Arsenal at the Emirates, picking a best bet in what is a monumental match-up for both teams.
There's a whole lot on the line for these two teams on what is sure to be a Super Sunday for the Premier League.
Before the title race takes centre stage later in the afternoon, Arsenal and Leeds will both have a chance to make their mark on the fascinating top-four and relegation battles respectively.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Of course, Arsenal are deserved favourites to win this game at the Emirates, bouncing back from three disappointing defeats with three wins against clubs in the top seven of the table.
There was some encouragement in the three losses, however, with the Gunners creating chances without hitting their target. Arsenal scored just once from 5.56 expected goals (xG) in those fixtures.
Mikel Arteta's side have continued to fashion scoring opportunities in the next three, recording 5.33 xG in netting seven times, so we should expect another good attacking display from the hosts.
Perhaps that consistency is a way in to this match from a betting perspective, with simple match odds for the home side looking unappealing.
A beneficiary of such creativity is the current focal point of Arsenal's attack, which makes the 6/4 available at Sky Bet for EDDIE NKETIAH TO SCORE ANYTIME of interest, especially when considering he is odds-on in places.
Nketiah has started each of the last four matches after coming on as a substitute against Crystal Palace and Brighton, proving his ability to get into scoring positions in that limited time with an average of 0.48 xG per 90 minutes.
The young striker has only managed to score in the game against Chelsea, but he twice came very close against West Ham, so it's easy to envisage Nketiah getting chances against his former team.
Leeds might not be the severely porous defence that they were at one point this season, taking a more pragmatic approach under Jesse Marsch.
There are still issues with that backline, though, a frailty that Arsenal – and Nketiah – can exploit.
With Leeds almost in desperation mode in regards to relegation, all possible game states should be advantageous for a Gunners attack that is firing at the moment.
Arsenal v Leeds best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Eddie Nketiah to score anytime at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1800 BST (05/05/21)
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