Arsenal host Fulham on Sunday, and the in-form Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to preview the game and select two best bets at odds-against.
Football betting tips: Arsenal v Fulham
2pts Arsenal -1.0 Asian Handicap at 11/8 (General)
1pt Arsenal win to nil at 9/5 (General)
While Arsenal may not be playing for anything down the home stretch of this Premier League season, currently seven points behind sixth-placed Liverpool, these final few games are important for Mikel Arteta, his staff and the Arsenal players.
The Arteta revolution has been slow to take off, but the signs are that they are trending in a very positive direction under the Spaniard, and the Arsenal players – particularly the younger ones – are playing hard in an attempt to convince their coach that they deserve to be part of the project.
Arsenal ‘second string’ forwards exciting
Despite feeling a somewhat ‘second string’ forward line last weekend, the Gunners swatted bottom club Sheffield United aside with consummate ease.
There was no Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for that clash, with it later revealed that the Gabonese forward had contracted malaria while on international duty, while Willian was benched and loanee Martin Ødegaard remains out injured.
That meant Nicolas Pepe and Alexandre Lacazette were joined by the ever impressive Bukayo Saka and the exciting Gabriel Martinelli at Bramall Lane, and the quartet were very much singing from the same hymn sheet.
Even more impressively though, was how they went to Slavia Prague in the Europa League and thumped the Czech side 4-0. That was a Slavia side who were unbeaten at home in all competitions this season.
Emile Smith-Rowe replaced Martinelli in the forward line for that game, but again, the flow in Gunners attack was reminiscent of yesteryear, of the fluid attacking sides of the Arsene Wenger era.
Now I’m not saying that they are THAT good, but the signs are promising. Since Boxing Day, Arteta’s side have been the sixth best attacking team in the Premier League based on expected goals.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
- xG process is the rate at which a teams creates and concedes chances
Defence was Arteta’s first stop
What we learnt from last season was that Mikel Arteta was going to rebuild this Arsenal team from the back forwards, prioritising the need for defensive stability.
Their FA Cup win showcased just that, being able to limit the best attacking teams to very little, but this season, they began by looking rock solid at the back but toothless in attack.
Having wrestled with approaches, the Gunners are now on track and balanced, allowing 1.26 expected goals against (xGA) per game this season, down from 1.62 last season.
We're now starting to see them being creative in attack, and less sloppy defensively than in recent seasons, and while this will end up being a disappointing league campaign, it will be for the benefit of the club moving forward.
Fulham looking doomed
I wrote an article during the most recent international break as to why you should back Fulham for the drop, then priced at 11/10. Having played two and lost two since, Scott Parker’s side can be backed at a best price of 1/4.
They head to the Emirates having lost five of their last six, and thanks to Newcastle’s results, now find themselves six points from safety having played a game more. It’s must-win territory for the Cottagers.
The issue they have had this season though has been creating chances of note.
Fulham have created the eighth most non-penalty chances this season (371), more than the likes of Leicester (367) and West Ham (358), but the Cottagers have racked up the third fewest ‘big chances’ – a scoring opportunity with a 35% or greater chance of being converted.
They are the definition of high-volume, low-quality, with just 6% of their chances being big ones, the lowest percentage in the Premier League.
Couple an inefficient approach in attack with a vulnerable defence, and you have a relegation favourite.
Fulham have allowed an average of 1.58 xGA per game on the road this term, so are already open, but will be even more so given their need for wins.
Get Arsenal onside
I was tempted to just put up Arsenal to win this game, as I think their general price of 3/4 is small value.
For context as to why that is; the Gunners went off at 1/2 at home to Newcastle and Burnley, 7/10 against Crystal Palace and 4/5 against Leeds. That would mean Fulham are nearly of the same quality of Leeds which is absolutely not true.
Given the improvements Arsenal have made in attack, with their exciting forward line looking to have gelled, and the defensive frailties of Fulham, I like the look of ARSENAL -1.0 on the ASIAN HANDICAP.
That means that we get a nice pay out if Arsenal win by two or more goals, but if they win by just the one, we get our money back, so we have a security blanket in a sense.
I am also going to play ARSENAL WIN TO NIL at nearly 2/1 given everything discussed around Fulham’s woeful attacking play, and the fact that, with Thomas Partey now fully fit, the Arsenal defence has extra protection.
Arsenal v Fulham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap at 11/8 (General)
- 1pt Arsenal win to nil at 9/5 (General)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1700 BST (16/04/21)
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