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Arsenal v Chelsea Super Sunday tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Arsenal welcome Chelsea in their first home game of the season, and Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, being keen to get the visitors onside.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Chelsea to win at 4/5 (MansionBet)
Arsenal’s season got off to the worst possible start last week, with off-field issues combined with a poor display at Brentford suggesting that the Gunners are still in turmoil.
Mikel Arteta was missing his key attacking players, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette, who tested positive for coronavirus last week, and without them the Gunners struggled in attack.
Though Arsenal took 22 shots, their xG total was just 1.19, meaning their shots averaged an xG of 0.05 – so each attempt had around a 5% chance of being scored. That kind of output isn’t going to win you many matches.
At the other end of the pitch, they looked soft-centred yet again, conceding a comical goal from a long throw-in, struggling to deal with the intensity and physicality of Brentford.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Arsenal 15/4 | Draw 13/5 | Chelsea 3/4
I quite fancied Arsenal to have a better season this time around, and while there is still plenty of time for that to be the case, doubts are immediately cropping up.
And it doesn’t get any easier for the Gunners, who host the European champions on Sunday before travelling to face the Premier League champions next week.
Something has to change, and while on the face of it Mikel Arteta has a decent enough record against the so-called ‘big six’, winning six of 16 games in the Premier League, the underlying numbers tell a different story.
In those 16 games Arsenal have averaged just 0.94 xGF per match, while allowing a staggering 1.89 xGA per game. They have been comfortably second best on average against their fellow ‘big six’ sides.
They welcome a Chelsea team who are legitimate title contenders this season under Thomas Tuchel.
The Blues picked up where they left off last season, swatting aside Crystal Palace while barely conceding a chance (xG: CHE 1.16 – 0.34 CRY).
Defence was their best weapon last term, as they allowed just 0.68 xGA per league game under Tuchel, and they have started strongly again.
While ever they defend in that manner, limiting their opponents to very little, Chelsea won’t lose many football matches, and that takes the pressure off the forward players.
They need the pressure easing, as that was an area of weakness last season under the German, not the chance creation, the chance conversion.
Chelsea scored just 25 goals in 19 games after Tuchel’s arrival, but racked up chances equating to 35.9 xGF – underscoring by around 11 goals.
This has been a running trend for the Blues over the past few seasons, but the signing of Romelu Lukaku could be just the remedy they need in that sense, a clinical spearhead to lead the line.
Lukaku could prove to be the missing piece to the puzzle, as after all, in Tuchel’s time at the club no team averaged more expected points (xP) per game than Chelsea (2.10), with Manchester City a close second (2.06).
Not only does Lukaku bring goals and a focal point to the team, but he is a flat-track bully who will be licking his lips at the thought of a physical battle against this Arsenal defence, should he get the nod.
Even if he doesn’t start, expect an impactful appearance from the bench, and I don’t think Chelsea will need him to win at the Emirates, and that is my bet for this game – CHELSEA TO WIN.
The Blues will dominate proceedings and create chances while limiting Arsenal. Aubameyang could return for this game, but Lacazette is set to be out, not that that would make much of a difference against this Chelsea team in my opinion.
It won’t be a rampaging win, as Tuchel’s side don’t tend to win with a dominant scoreline, but I’m expecting a controlled away victory, and if Chelsea were to score early and look to be cruising, the negative atmosphere around the Emirates could well hamper any comeback from Arsenal.
Arsenal v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Chelsea to win at 4/5 (MansionBet)
Score prediction: Arsenal 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 BST (20/08/21)
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