Alexandre Lacazette is Ben Coley's player to back in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final between Arsenal and Chelsea.
We have tipped four winners from four selections in the Carabao Cup semi-finals so far. Get all of the details!
Arsenal v Chelsea recommended bets
2pts Alexandre Lacazette to score at any time in Arsenal v Chelsea at 19/10
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Arsenal v Chelsea (2000 GMT, live on Sky Sports)
Arsenal did what they needed to do and kept in this tie with a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge a fortnight ago, but there is a bit of an issue which stands in the way of Wembley and a likely date with the Manchester City juggernaut. Who exactly is going to score the goals?
Alexis Sanchez has gone (in this age of deadline-day switches, could Arsenal not have clung on for a week and asked him for one last effort?), Henrikh Mkhitaryan is cup-tied, Olivier Giroud and Danny Welbeck are both injured, and Aaron Ramsey is touch-and-go. Even Nacho Monreal, who scored one and assisted two at the weekend, is doubtful.
Looking through the Arsenal squad, that leaves a heck of a lot of pressure on Alexandre Lacazette and Mesut Ozil and it's no surprise therefore that Chelsea remain marginal favourites to qualify despite having been no more impressive than the Gunners over the last month or so.
Goals have, of course, also been a problem for the reigning Premier League champions, who endured three 0-0 draws in succession before finally clicking in a 4-0 victory over Brighton at the weekend. There's little doubt the speed with which Eden Hazard put Chelsea ahead was key in rediscovering their mojo and one wonders whether three points would've come quite so easily had the Belgian failed to take his chance on three minutes.
After colleague Nick Hext capitalised on these concerns to tip 0-0 in the first leg, then, there's some temptation to play it again at 11/1. Arsenal's last domestic 0-0 at the Emirates came 15 months ago, but there's a lot riding on this and a tentative beginning would come as no surprise.
Certainly, backing both teams to score at 8/13 makes limited appeal, even allowing for the fact that were either team to fall behind, the game could really open up. Chelsea will know that an away goal will come into force at the end of extra-time in one of football's particularly absurd rules but their first requirement will be to limit chances for the hosts, knowing that they can quickly grow frustrated and that Lacazette's confidence may remain low despite a goal against Palace.
Ultimately, much depends on how much value these sides are able to take form their weekend victories, which were both important but expected. Arsenal blitzed Palace just as Chelsea blitzed Brighton and the suspicion is that we will see a far more fluid, open game than the fairly turgid affair in the first leg.
That suits Arsenal, who can't be relied upon to defend well but still have the midfield nous to pick apart opponents who begin to open up and in a game I would just about rate as a coin toss, they look fair value at 2/1 to win in 90 minutes despite those scoring concerns, or odds-against to keep up their strong record in cup competitions by reaching another final.
I wonder, too, whether Lacazette's goal against Palace might just trigger a first genuine run of goals in Arsenal red, especially now that he's the breadwinner up front. Arsene Wenger said after the Palace game that his compatriot's drought had "started to play on his mind", adding that scoring was "a relief for him", and there may be some real progress in the coming weeks and months if he can build on it immediately.
It was interesting to note Football365's suggestion that Lacazette could really benefit from the departure of Sanchez, who assisted none of his goals this season and, of course, demanded much of the ball.
You'd certainly like to think that he sees this as a perfect opportunity to show what he can do for the club and that mental edge, plus the likelihood that he receives the ball far more often, lends me to think that he could strike again while the iron's hot. At 19/10 to score, that's just about enough for a small bet in what promises to be an entertaining conclusion to a fascinating semi-final.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
Posted at 1600 GMT on 23/01/18.
Opta statistics
- This will be the fifth meeting in all competitions between the two sides this season – the third time they’ve met five times in a single campaign and first since 2003-04 (also 1946-47).
- All four meetings between these sides in all competitions this season have ended level – the last time two Premier League teams drew four games against each other in the same season was Blackburn versus Sunderland in 2002-03.
- Indeed, the last time two top-flight clubs drew five games against each other in a single season was Arsenal versus Liverpool back in 1979-80. In fact, the only other occasion that this happened involved Chelsea (versus Burnley in 1955-56).
- After failing to reach the final in five of their first six League Cup semi-finals in which they failed to win the first leg, the Gunners have progressed from two of the last three (2006-07 vs Spurs & 2010-11 vs Ipswich).
- Chelsea have progressed on each of the three occasions they’ve drawn the first leg of a League Cup semi-final; vs Man Utd in 2004-05, Wycombe in 2006-07 and Liverpool in 2014-15.
- Chelsea have lost just once in their last eight away games versus Arsenal in all competitions (W3 D4 L1).
- Arsenal and Chelsea have both made the League Cup final on seven previous occasions – only four teams have reached the final more times (Liverpool 12, Man Utd 9, Aston Villa 8, Spurs 8).
- Arsene Wenger has reached the League Cup final twice as Arsenal manager (2007 and 2011), but it remains the only domestic trophy he’s not won with the Gunners.
