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Argentina vs Colombia Copa America 2024 final betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Copa America 2024
2.5pts Both teams to commit 13+ fouls at 19/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Both teams to commit 15+ fouls at 27/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Draw at 2/1 (888sport)
- *All bets are in 90 minutes
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BuildABet @ 10/1
- Argentina to commit 15+ fouls
- Colombia to commit 15+ fouls
- 70+ booking points
- Lionel Messi to win 2+ fouls
- James Rodriguez to win 2+ fouls
It seems unlikely that many of you will have stayed up into the middle of the night to watch the Copa America, but those who did have absolutely been rewarded.
The tournament has delivered in many ways; excellent football of a high intensity, with plenty of goals, fouls and cards. Unfortunately it has also fallen short, mainly with off-field antics.
Hosts USA were eliminated in the group stage and harassed the referee after the game, and then in the semi-finals, a mass brawl broke out between the Uruguay players and Colombia fans, the players fearing for their families' safety. Not ideal in the country where the 2026 World Cup will be taking place.
Back on the pitch, and the Copa final has set up a game between arguably the two hottest teams in world football right now. Record Copa winners (15) and reigning Copa and World champions Argentina take on a Colombia side playing some breathtaking football en route to the showpiece.
Readers of the pre-tournament preview will know that we are on board with Argentina, so hopefully they can get over the line, but expect a tight, attritional game in Florida.
What are the best bets?
I say 'two of the hottest teams' on the planet for the simple reason that these two nations have found a knack of not losing games.
Argentina, bidding for a third major international trophy in a row, have lost just two of last 62 international matches. Let that sink in.
A freak result against Saudi Arabia in the World Cup they would go onto win, and a stellar performance from a Uruguay side managed by a genius Argentinian, are the only blots on a five-year copybook that has seen them win 46 games in 90 minutes.
As for Colombia, they are currently on the longest unbeaten run in international football, their victory over Uruguay in the semis extending it to 28 matches. It did come at a cost though, with Crystal Palace right back Daniel Munoz sent off meaning he will miss the final, a huge blow given how he's performed at the tournament.
Nonetheless, the fact that both sides know how not to lose makes the DRAW in 90 minutes of immediate interest at 2/1, and the first selection of the preview.
I did have the intention of dutching either team to win on penalties, given the Copa up to this stage had gone straight to spot-kicks after a draw in 90 minutes, but for the final the organisers have brought back extra time to throw a spanner in the works.
If you still fancy it, you can get 15/2 about Argentina and penalty guru Emi Martinez coming out on top in spot-kicks, and 8/1 for Colombia.
Foul play
Anyone who has read my column throughout the Euros will know that team and player fouls have featured prominently this summer. Though we have pivoted to a different competition on a different continent, we'll again wade in, with BOTH TEAMS TO COMMIT 13+ FOULS a solid bet at close to even money.
The way in which Colombia play with their high-intensity press and incredibly fast flowing attacking football is just conducive to lots of fouls. So far this tournament they have committed an average of 15.2 per game and drawn an average of 15.4.
Argentina haven't been as active in making fouls, not surprising given their easy run to the final (Canada twice, Chile, Peru and Venezuela), but they have drawn plenty, an average of 14.0 per game.
La Albiceleste are more than familiar with the dark arts, and as the competition stiffens for this final, so will their tackles. That has been the case ever since the last Copa final in 2021 against Brazil. On that day they committed 19 fouls and drew 22.
Since then they have played seven matches against elite nations and this bet has landed in six of them. Two games with Uruguay saw 20-14 and 11-22 fouls (Argentina the first number), two further games against Brazil saw 21-21 and 16-26. They played Italy in the Finalissima which saw 16-13 fouls.
Their World Cup quarter final against the Netherlands saw 18-30 fouls, and normal time of the final with France saw Argentina make 20 fouls and Les Bleus 16. Their only meeting with Colombia in this time brought a 12-17 foul tally, so it seems worthwhile getting a little greedy here and backing BOTH TEAMS TO COMMIT 15+ FOULS at 27/10.
It's worth mentioning here that this bet would have landed in three of Colombia's last four games against top tier opponents (Brazil twice, Spain 17-15 and Germany 17-15).
Cards could follow
With fouls fancied, cards should follow. Copa America finals usually explode with cards, the last eight seeing an average of 7.0 per game.
The man in the middle for this one is Brazilian Raphael Claus who has been in red-hot form domestically. Across 23/24 he averaged 4.5 cards per game, brandishing 11 reds in 47 outings, but he's exploded in the early 24/25 campaign, averaging 6.1 cards per game and showing two reds in seven.
You can back Over 5.5 cards at 8/11 with Betfair which looks a great way in, with Over 6.5 around the 6/4 mark - Sky Bet go 4/5 for 70+ booking points. It's a best price of 5/2 for a red card in the match with bet365.
I won't be making an official play, but history and the referee appointment would suggest that the Over 6.5 is a solid bet.
Team news
Argentina boss Lionel Scaloni doesn't have any injury or suspension concerns heading into the final, but he has some big decisions to make, especially up front.
Julian Alvarez has started over Lautaro Martinez in three of his four appearances at Copa, with the Inter striker proving to be a super sub, leading the Golden Boot race with four goals.
Lionel Messi will be bidding to lift his third international trophy in succession as Argentine captain.
Colombia will be without Daniel Munoz after he was sent off against Uruguay, with Santiago Arias set to replace him. Midfielder Richard Rios is battling to be fit, and should he not make it, Matheus Uribe will come in.
James Rodriguez will again lead his nation, and looks set to win Player of the Tournament after scoring one and assisting six in his five Copa America matches.
Predicted line-ups
Argentina: E. Martinez; Molina, Romero, Li. Martinez, Tagliafico; De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister, Gonzalez; Alvarez, Messi
Colombia: Vargas; S. Arias, Sanchez, Cuesta, Mojica; Rios, Lerma; J. Arias, James, Diaz; Cordoba
Odds correct at 1705 BST (12/07/24)
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