Are Crystal Palace sleepwalking to relegation?

• Published before Crystal Palace sacked Patrick Vieira

Granted, it sounds like the title for a Bryan’s Gunn video compilation, but Crystal Palace are epitomising the cliché at the moment.

Pedestrian in a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa, Patrick Vieira's side could have been mistaken for sleepwalking on Saturday, mustering a meagre three shots totalling 0.21 expected goals (xG), leaving Palace just six points above the drop zone despite sitting in 12th.

Only the ineptitude of multiple clubs has allowed Palace to drift almost unnoticed in to trouble, but one win since the World Cup break and an even longer decline in underlying performance has seen them merge with the nine-club pack fighting for survival.

Signs there early season

In truth, Palace's disappointing displays stretch back to the very start of the 2022/23 campaign.

Four wins in six just before the pause in play masked issues that have shown themselves to be fairly systemic at this point, notably an inability to create chances and score goals.

Only Bournemouth (25.2) have managed a lower expected goals for (xGF) total than the Eagles (26.1) this season, a negligible average of 1.04 xGF per game. They've scored 21 times across those 25 matches played.

It's an issue that has plagued Palace to an even greater extent after the World Cup, a disturbing course that must be corrected by Vieira. In the 11 Premier League games following the break, they've averaged 0.62 actual goals and 0.89 xGF per game.

Having Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise, Wilfried Zaha and Jordan Ayew all in the division's top 12 for successful take-ons may no longer look like exciting prospects with an innate ability to dribble, but an individualistic approach, such is the results prism we view football through.

It is admittedly harsh to see it that way, but Palace's problems with chance-creation are at a critical point, as well as the lack of a bonafide goalscorer.

As with almost all underperforming teams, injuries have played their part. Zaha has missed time in a winless 2023 and defensive absences have obviously contributed to Palace's process at the back taking a decline.

Still, it is the top end of Palace's line-up that is in desperate need of improvement, especially with a curious schedule to come.

On current form, nobody expects Palace to beat Manchester City, Brighton or Arsenal in their next three, even if the second is a pseudo-derby. Their last 10 opponents are fascinating, however.

Palace play each of the eight teams below them in the Premier League table, a recipe for relative success or absolute disaster in the scrap for safety.

Premier League relegation 2022/23 odds (via Sky Bet)

• Bournemouth - 1/3
• Southampton - 4/7
• Everton - 10/11
• Nottingham Forest - 13/8
• Leeds - 7/4
• West Ham - 5/1
• Leicester - 11/2
• Wolves - 7/1
• Crystal Palace - 9/1

Odds correct at 1500 GMT (08/03/23)

An average position of 14.7 for Palace's last 10 should offer enough opportunities for Vieira to drag his team out of the battle, currently five points above the relegation places, but it is the 'sleepwalking' that puts his job at risk.

Recent displays have seen them mindlessly drift from European football challengers to relegation candidates, a surprise after such a promising 2021/22 campaign.

It does appear there are three bad teams that will bail Crystal Palace out from sleepwalking into relegation, but at some point, they need to wake up.

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