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Any Other Bets: UEFA Nations League Friday 6 September
Football betting tips: UEFA Nations League
1.5pts Both Teams to Score 'No' in France vs Italy (19:45) at 10/11 (William Hill)
1pt Orkun Kokcu to be carded in Wales vs Türkiye (19:45) at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
France vs Italy
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
- Home 3/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/5
I look at Italy's squad and think 'where are the goals going to come from?'. That is exactly the same thought as at the Euros, where they exited with a whimper.
They scored twice against Albania, needed a late equaliser against Croatia to qualify, but were dominated by Spain and Switzerland, kept at arms length in both.
Giacomo Raspadori (six international goals), Moise Kean (four), Mateo Retegui (four) and Mattia Zaccagni (four) are the forwards in this current squad.
That has me immediately looking to oppose goals, and I think the best angle is to back BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO'.
France to keep a clean sheet is priced at 5/4 which did appeal, but by backing BTTS 'No' we have the security if it's Italy that keep a clean sheet or if the game ends goalless.
Les Bleus were hardly front-foot in the Euros, struggling to score goals, but defensively they were excellent. Didier Deschamps' side saw BTTS 'No' land in four of their six matches in Germany, and a repeat looks likely in what is a competitive fixture, despite what many will say about the competition.
Wales vs Türkiye
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Friday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 2/1 | Away 13/8
There really is no love lost between these two sides. The pair have played three times since 2021, once at Euro 2020 and twice in Euro 2024 qualifying.
Across those three games there have been a total of 16 yellows and one red, and I expect the full-blooded nature of Wales-Türkiye games to continue here, especially as both will be wanted to get promoted to Nations League A, and as Wales begin life under Craig Bellamy.
The referee for this one is Norwegian Rohit Saggi who has brandished an average of 4.13 cards per game, and in a recent Champions League qualifier flashed nine yellows.
I'm going to target Türkiye attacking midfielder ORKUN KOKCU TO BE CARDED at 4/1.
The midfielder was carded twice at the Euros, and overall has picked up eight yellows in 32 international appearances for Turkey - an average of 0.25 per 90. That strike rate would imply a price of 3/1, so with the refereeing appointment and the fiery nature of recent fixtures between these two, the price available looks large.
Also, I have to mention that he has already been carded twice in four games this season for Benfica.
Already advised
2pts Erling Haaland to score anytime in Kazakhstan vs Norway (15:00) at 4/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Kazakhstan vs Norway
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Friday
- Home 6/1 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/11
Kazakhstan have been incredibly leaky over the last few years. Their last three friendlies against Luxembourg, Armenia and Azerbaijan saw them lose all three and concede seven.
In Euro qualifying against sides not called San Marino - who did score when playing in Kazakhstan - or a poor Northern Ireland team, the Kazakhs shipped 11 times in six matches.
Norway were unfortunate not to make it to the Euros, putting up the second best underlying numbers in their qualifying group, finishing behind eventual winners Spain and eventual group flops Scotland - who were the biggest overperformers in qualifying.
They ranked as the 13th best side according to overall xG process, ahead of the likes of Belgium and Turkey, while they averaged 1.64 xGF per game.
With a solid squad, including some excellent players, it's no surprise to see them chalked up at 4/9 to win this Nations League opener, but the jump to 4/5 for the cyborg ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE ANYTIME looks a cracking bet.
The Manchester City striker has started the season in red-hot form after a summer off, netting seven in three league outings, and given his record for Norway is an utterly ridiculous 31 goals in 33 caps (!!!), I'm staggered we are getting a price at 4/5. He's 4/6 generally, and as short as 1/2 with BetVictor.
He scored six in five Euro 2024 qualifiers, six in six 22/23 Nations League games, five in six 2022 World Cup qualifiers and six in four 20/21 Nations League matches. It's a ridiculous record, but we shouldn't really be surprised by now.
Odds correct at 1330 BST (04/09/24)
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