Football betting tips: New Year's Day best bets
1.5pts Nathaniel Phillips 1+ total shot in Sheff Wed vs Derby (15:00) at 7/4 (bet365)
1.5pts Curtis Nelson 1+ total shot in Sheff Wed vs Derby (15:00) at 23/20 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pt Nathaniel Phillips to score anytime in Sheff Wed vs Derby (15:00) at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Curtis Nelson to score anytime in Sheff Wed vs Derby (15:00) at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Wednesday
- Home evens | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/5
Sheffield Wednesday are 11th in the league, four points off the top six and will have to win games like this if they are to finish in the play-off places. Derby are mid-table too, but are a poor travelling side (W1 D4 L7), though their chief threat could at least see them get on the scoresheet at Hillsborough.
No team has scored more goals from set-pieces than Derby this season (12), while no team has conceded more goals from such situations than the Owls.
Danny Rohl's side had shown some improvement from dead-ball situations, but three of their last four games have seen the same issues rear their ugly head.
At Oxford, they allowed four shots equating to 0.60 xG and conceded once from a set-piece, at home to Stoke it was 10 shots and 1.07 xG, and last time out at Preston it was three shots, 1.00 xG and a goal conceded.
It's worth backing both of Derby's centre-backs then, and NATHANIEL PHILLIPS and CURTIS NELSON both looking huge to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT and TO SCORE ANYTIME.
- CLICK HERE to back Nathaniel Phillips to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Curtis Nelson to score anytime with Sky Bet
Nelson has been a threat all season for the Rams, scoring twice already and he's been in good shooting form of late, taking eight attempts in his last 10 games, firing two against Leeds last time out. He's 11/10 for a shot and 18/1 to score.
Phillips hasn't been a regular starter this season, but with Eiran Cashin out injured, he's come in to the XI in the last three games and laded a shot in all three - all against good sides when it comes to defending set-pieces. He's started nine games this season and this bet has won in five of them, with him averaging 1.0 shot per 90, so the 7/4 for a repeat looks massive.
Last season when at Cardiff, Phillips scored once and fired a shot in 10 of his 17 starts - taking 15 shots in total. Phillips is a huge 25/1 to score anytime which looks incredibly big.
Odds correct at 2100 GMT (30/12/24)
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