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Any Other Bets: Premier League and EFL tips for Saturday 17 August
Football betting tips: Premier League & EFL
1pt Everton to beat Brighton at 17/10 (Betfair, Unibet)
0.5pt Everton win to nil at 17/4 (BetVictor)
2.5pts Doncaster to beat Newport at 17/20 (Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill)
Everton vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4
EVERTON may have only been mid-table in terms of their home record last season (W8 D4 L7) but they came out on the wrong side of some very fine margins, while also missing a host of chances in matches they dominated.
The underlying numbers reflect that, with the Toffees ranking as the sixth best home team in 2023/24 according to expected goals (xG) data, finishing the campaign around six points shy of the tally they ought to have collected.
Only Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool conceded fewer goals at their own ground. Sean Dyche's team kept a remarkable 11 clean sheets in 19 matches at Goodison, conceding only 18 goals in total.
Brighton head into their first game under 31-year-old German Fabian Hurzeler - the youngest ever full-time Premier League manager, who will be keen to move on from the negativity Roberto De Zerbi tied the club up in during the second half of last season.
That won't be easy to do immediately though, given the opposition and the fact Albion took only 18 points on the road in 23/24.
Hurzeler's style of play is unlikely to be too different and, so far, Dyche seems to like the match-up - Brighton needed last-gasp equalisers to draw both games last season, while at the end of the previous campaign Everton ran out 5-1 winners at The Amex.
As well as taking the HOME WIN, taking the Toffees to WIN TO NIL to smaller stakes is also advised.
Newport vs Doncaster
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 29/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 3/4
When DONCASTER surrendered a 2-0 first-leg advantage by losing at home to Crewe and eventually being beaten on penalties in last season's Sky Bet League Two play-offs it was quite the anticlimax. It meant a campaign which ended with 10 straight wins, losing only one of their final 18 games, to sneak into the top seven, was all for nothing.
But Grant McCann's side seem to have immediately brushed off that disappointment, thrashing Accrington 4-1 and backing that up with a 2-0 win at Salford in the Carabao Cup.
Newport have conceded seven goals already - losing 3-2 at Cheltenham and 4-1 at Leyton Orient - and have now lost 10 straight matches; they look set for a long old season.
Saturday 12:30
1.5pts Ipswich +1.5 Asian Handicap vs Liverpool at evens (bet365)
0.5pt Ipswich to beat Liverpool at 8/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt No goalscorer in West Brom vs Leeds at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Portsmouth to beat Luton at 21/10 (bet365, Betfair, William Hill)
Ipswich vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 7/1 | Draw 9/2 | Away 3/10
Liverpool must have a friend who works in the Premier League fixture scheduling department. After a one-year hiatus (they drew at Chelsea last season) the Reds are back to facing a newly-promoted club on opening weekend - the fifth time they have done so in six seasons.
Despite the favourable treatment, Jurgen Klopp's side didn't have it all their own way. They twice had to equalise to claim a draw at Fulham in 2022, and in 2020 needed an 88th-minute penalty to beat Leeds 4-3 at Anfield.
There is a huge amount of uncertainty for Liverpool ahead of their first game under Arne Slot having lost an iconic manager after almost a decade in charge. As they experience an identity crisis they face an IPSWICH team who know exactly who they are under Kieran McKenna.
Since he arrived in December 2021 they have been remarkable: W75 D37 L20. Even more impressive is their home record in the league: W39 D16 L3.
There is no doubting the gulf in quality between the players, but it's worth chancing Ipswich to at the very least give Liverpool a scare, taking them on the +1.5 ASIAN HANDICAP so our bet collects as long as Liverpool don't win by two goals or more.
I'm also happy to take the straight HOME WIN to small stakes too.
West Brom vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 23/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 21/20
In the way only Leeds fans can, there has been quite the overreaction to two poor performances. Objectively, Daniel Farke's side have been defensively woeful, conceding three times to newly-promoted Portsmouth before a much-changed team was torn to pieces to lose 3-0 to Middlesbrough, both at home.
That midweek capitulation saw Farke make five substitutions at the same time in a desperate act to stem the flow of opposition attacks, only for Boro to score a third moments later. In fairness he does need to do something drastic to fix his defence, which is why it's worth chancing the German closing shop this weekend.
West Brom's pragmatic head coach Carlos Corberan would take full advantage of any gaping holes in the middle of the pitch, so don't be surprised to see the teams cancel each other out, making the 11/1 quotes on NO GOALSCORER appeal.
There is 12/1 about under 0.5 goals or a 0-0 correct scoreline, but no goalscorer gives us the added security of paying out should an own goal be scored.
A lot has been made of Leeds' poor defence, but they're struggling in attack too, failing to find the net in six of their last 10 matches.
As an added kicker, 13% of West Brom's league home matches have ended 0-0 over the past two seasons, double the overall average in both the second tier and Europe's top five leagues.
Portsmouth vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 19/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 6/5
John Mousinho has done a phenomenal job at PORTSMOUTH, taking them from League One struggles midway through 22/23 to the title last season.
It's been a tale of long-term success, too. Since he got a proper grip of the team in March 2023 they have lost only five of 58 league games, which is why it was no shock that they came within seconds of winning at Leeds on opening weekend, still leaving Elland Road with a point.
They now host a Luton team who have started the season beset by injuries.
The Hatters' lack of fit defenders was a huge factor in their 4-1 home humbling by Burnley on Monday night, and with plenty of players still on the sidelines they could be in for a difficult afternoon as Fratton Park hosts Championship football for the first time in 12 years.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (16/08/24)
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