Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Davide Frattesi to score anytime in Italy vs Belgium at 19/5 (Unibet)
1pt Michael Olise to score anytime in Israel vs France at 11/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt San Marino win-or-draw double chance vs Gibraltar at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Boylesports)
0.5pts Nathan Collins to score anytime in Finland vs Rep of Ireland at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Mark McGuinness to score anytime in Finland vs Rep of Ireland at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
*All kick-off at 19:45
Italy vs Belgium
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
- Home 10/11 | Draw 23/10 | Away 11/4
Joe Townsend
Italy were hugely impressive in recovering from a one-goal deficit after 12 seconds in Paris to beat France 3-1 in their opening Nations League fixture and built on that with a 2-1 win away to Israel.
Their central-midfield trio of Sandro Tonali, Samuele Ricci and DAVIDE FRATTESI formed the backbone of those victories and will prove pivotal once again for Luciano Spalletti's improving team against a declining Belgium side.
Frattesi scored in each of those wins, continuing his exceptional recent goalscoring run in non-tournament matches for his country, with it now five goals in seven fixtures across the Nations League and European Championship qualifiers.
At a best price of 19/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME we should back him to do so again.
Finland vs Rep of Ireland
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
- Home 9/5 | Draw 15/8 | Away 6/4
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
After two games, both the Republic of Ireland and Finland are pointless in Nations League Group 2 having lost to Greece and England.
The best insight into this clash is the first goalscorer market where the shortest price is ‘No Goalscorer’ at 13/2.
Ireland do lack creativity. Two games into Heimir Hallgrímsson’s reign and he is yet to see The Boys in Green score, in fact, his side have only had two shots on target.
Set-pieces used to be a strength under Stephen Kenny, with three of Ireland’s eight goals in the last Nations League campaign coming from dead-ball situations and another three of their nine via the same source in eight Euro 2024 qualification games.
Finland seem to struggle defending them - two of Greece’s goals came from set-pieces when the sides met in September.
SQUAD ANNOUNCED | 24-man squad named for Finland & Greece matches 🤩
— Ireland Football ⚽️🇮🇪 (@IrelandFootball) October 3, 2024
Mark McGuinness receives his first call-up as Jack Taylor, Finn Azaz, Jamie McGrath, Festy Ebosele & Mikey Johnston all come into the squad 🇮🇪💚
10/10 | 🇫🇮🆚🇮🇪
13/10 | 🇬🇷🆚🇮🇪 pic.twitter.com/cIJnoiX572
NATHAN COLLINS looks the most likely to exploit Finland's weakness and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a go, Brentford’s centre-back has scored twice in 22 caps and netted for the Bees at the weekend.
MARK MCGUINNESS is a much bigger punt. For one, he is 22/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME but also because this is his first senior call-up. The defender has had 16 shots in eight appearances from Luton this term, hitting four or more on three occasions.
If he does get the nod, I want a debut goal onside.
Worth noting, with a lack of goals expected I did want to take these defenders to score first but the leading firms do not offer each way terms.
Gibraltar vs San Marino
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
- Home 11/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 5/1
SAN MARINO WON.
— San Marino fan account (@SanMarino_FA) September 5, 2024
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
International breaks divide opinion but SAN MARINO’s first ever victory in the last one unified everyone.
The 1-0 victory over Liechtenstein was the first competitive win in the nation's history and first at all in 20 years. Their price to get a result against Gibraltar appeals.
FIFA World Rankings
- 198 - Gibraltar (842.4 total points)
- 210 - San Marino (746.05 total points)
Three days after San Marino’s win over Liechtenstein, Gibraltar drew 2-2 with the same opposition.
I am not sure there is as much between the two nations as the odds suggest and the price about San Marino DOUBLE CHANCE appeals.
Israel vs France
- Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
- Home 9/1 | Draw 19/4 | Away 1/5
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
France captain Kylian Mbappe has come under fire for pulling out of Les Bleus' squad for fixtures against Israel and Belgium despite playing for Real Madrid in the Champions League defeat against Lille and starting in the win over Villarreal at the weekend.
In Mbappe’s absence, France’s goalscorer market looks very interesting. It is just a case of trying to work out who makes Didier Deschamps' starting XI at Israel.
After Italy beat them 3-1 in their first Nations League game, Deschamps made eight changes for the win over Belgium.
With depth all over the pitch, second-guessing the France boss is a tricky business.
For example, competing on the right, Les Bleus have MICHAEL OLISE and Ousmane Dembele.
The latter started in the win over Belgium but missed out on PSG's recent trip to Arsenal with a minor injury, though he did return at the weekend against Nice.
Olise has played a major role for Vincent Kompany at Bayern Munich this term, netting four goals in six Bundesliga appearances and setting up another two. The former Reading man was also moved into a central role for the trip to Villa Park at the expense of Jamal Musiala.
At 11/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power, his price TO SCORE ANYTIME stands out for him to net his first senior goal for France on Thursday.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (07/10/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
