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Any Other Bets: Nations League tips for Monday 18 November
Football betting tips: Nations League
1.5pts Alvaro Morata to commit 2+ fouls in Spain vs Switzerland at 7/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Each team 30+ booking points in Bulgaria vs Belarus at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Filip Krastev to be carded in Bulgaria vs Belarus at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Benjamin Buchel to be carded in Liechtenstein vs San Marino at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Edoardo Colombo to be carded in Liechtenstein vs San Marino at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Bulgaria vs Belarus
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 4/1
For all that the Nations League seems inconvenient, it has delivered some drama and yet more dramatic finishes can be expected, especially in Bulgaria, where the hosts and Belarus have it all to play for.
A win for Bulgaria coupled with a defeat for Northern Ireland would see them win the group, while a draw would see them secure second and enter the promotion play-off. Belarus need to win to overtake Bulgaria and finish second.
So, cards are likely, and they have been like confetti in games featuring these two sides during this competition.
Bulgaria's matches have averaged 7.0 cards per game, with Belarus's seeing 6.0 per game. Unsurprisingly, the card line is set high here at 5.5, and the referee - Allard Lindhout - looks a good appointment.
A glance at the Dutchman's record doesn't fill you with confidence, but digging deeper it's clear to see that he flashes plenty of cards when refereeing anything other than Eredivisie matches. Since the start of 2022 he's overseen 20 matches on the continent - be it Champions League, Europa League, Nations League etc - and has averaged 5.15 cards per game.
I think backing EACH TEAM 30+ BOOKING POINTS looks an interesting way into the card market given the stakes, the teams' records and the referee appointment.
Bulgaria have collected 30+ booking points in three of their five contests, while Belarus have delivered 30+ in four of five. This bet would have won in five of the pair's combined 10 Nations League outings, so with plenty on the line the 9/4 looks large.
I'll also have a play on Bulgaria forward FILIP KRASTEV TO BE CARDED at a huge 9/2.
I can't quite understand why the price is so big for a player who has been carded in two of four Nations League outings and shown a red card in on of those.
He's committed an average of 1.90 fouls per 90 to go along with those cards, so with Bulgaria having it all to lose, it wouldn't surprise to see him play aggressively yet again from the front.
He has been carded twice in the Eredivisie already this season, averaging 1.40 fouls per 90, which does take some doing for a forward in a low-card league, highlighting his tenacious playing style.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing a red card in this game too, with Sky Bet pricing it at 50/1.
Spain vs Switzerland
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 18/5 | Away 21/4
Spain may have their Nations League group wrapped up, but we should expect them to be right at it once again here, just as they have been for the last 12 months. They play ferociously no matter the situation.
That approach leads me to the same bet Jimmy put up last Friday, with ALVARO MORATA 2+ FOULS COMMITTED simply too big to ignore despite the fact that there is nothing to play for for either team.
Morata is a fouling machine for high-pressing Spain, seemingly loving the chance to set the aggressive t=one for his nation.
Stealing Jim's notes, Morata has made 2+ fouls in seven of his last eight competitive starts, while he was in fine form at the weekend against Denmark despite playing only 21 minutes, committing three fouls and collecting a card.
At 7/5, he's worth backing again here.
Liechtenstein vs San Marino
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Monday
- Home 7/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 4/1
The biggest game of the night. Liechtenstein and San Marino go head-to-head with plenty on the line.
A Liechtenstein win would see them leapfrog their visitors and finish second in the group, entering a promotion play-off, while a San Marino win would see them top the group and win direct promotion to League C. Avoid defeat and San Marino would clinch second and enter the play-off.
Things should get scrappy, and the bookies have set the card line at a whopping 6.5. So, it makes sense to have a couple of player cards, but specifically for me, given the high stakes and the game state, backing keeper cards.
I'm going to split stakes on both Liechtenstein's keeper BENJAMIN BUCHEL and San Marino keeper EDOARDO COLOMBO TO BE CARDED.
- CLICK HERE to back Benjamin Buchel to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Edoardo Colombo to be carded with Sky Bet
At the time of writing, only Sky Bet have actually priced the player cards for this game, but the 7/1 and 6/1 respectively look very appetising. As the game kicks off, San Marino have it all to lose and should that still be the case through 70 minutes then Colombo could pull out all of the stops.
Should Liechtenstein take the lead - as is expected by the bookies with them the strong 4/5 favourites to win the game - they'll have it all to lose so we could see Buchel do his thing. He has been carded once already in the Swiss Challenge League this season.
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (18/11/24)
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