Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
1pt Alassana Jatta to score anytime in Port Vale vs Notts County (20:00) at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Alassana Jatta to score 2+ goals in Port Vale vs Notts County (20:00) at 16/1 (bet365)
Port Vale vs Notts County
- Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 8/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 29/20
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
It has been a rough winter for Port Vale.
They were top of the league heading into their FA Cup defeat against Barnsley and have only taken 19 points from the following 15 games falling to 6th.
Darren Moore appears to have steadied the ship recently, they are unbeaten in six league games but clean sheets are few and far between.
In nine League Two games since Christmas, Vale have only kept one clean sheet and conceded 17 times.
On Thursday they welcome Notts County to Vale Park, the division 3rd most prolific side (47 goals scored).
ALASSANA JATTA is the leagues second top goal scorer (14), he has netted 19 goals for County in 34 fourth tier appearances and with a goals per 90 average of 0.75 his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a tout.
Jatta also has four braces in 32 league starts, so the 16/1 about Jatta scoring 2+ GOALS also appeals.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (11/2/25)
Already advised
1pt Barnabas Varga to score anytime in Ferencvaros vs Plzen (17:45) at 2/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Barnabas Varga to score a brace in Ferencvaros vs Plzen (17:45) at 9/1 (General)
1.5pts Fenerbache most cards vs Anderlecht (17:45) at 7/5 (Unibet)
1.5pts Kevin Mac Allister to be carded in Union St-G vs Ajax (17:45) at 12/5 (Unibet)
1pt Union St-G most cards vs Ajax (17:45) at 13/10 (Unibet)
1pt Red card in Union St-G vs Ajax (17:45) at 7/2 (bet365)
0.25pts Both teams red card in Union St-G vs Ajax (17:45) at 55/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Ferencvaros vs Plzen
- Kick-off: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- Home 5/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 21/10
Jake Osgathorpe
It looks worthwhile revisiting a successful tip from the last round of the Europa League, with BARNABAS VARGA TO SCORE ANYTIME again dangled at an appealing price.
We can get 2/1 about the Hungarian finding the net against Plzen, and that looks too big. After all, he has scored six times in the Europa League so far this season, finding the net in three of his four home games.
He's averaging a very impressive 0.64 xG per 90 in this competition, and was rested completely at the weekend meaning he'll be extremely fresh for the visit of a Plzen side who have so far conceded nine times in four Europa League matches, shipping multiple goals in three of those.
Varga will get plenty of chances here, so we'll also back him TO SCORE A BRACE at 9/1, something he's managed twice in seven UEL outings so far this season, and four times in his last 12 Ferencvaros matches.
The Hungarians have scored four times in their last two European home games, and given how poorly they have travelled in this competition (W1 L3), will be looking to win big in this first leg ahead of a trip to Czechia, enhancing the chances of Varga finding the net multiple times, as does the fact that he is his sides' penalty taker.
Fenerbache vs Anderlecht
- Kick-off: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 5/1
Jake Osgathorpe
Jose Mourinho's Fenerbache scraped through to the play-off round in rather unconvincing fashion, finishing in 24th spot and ahead of Braga on goal difference only.
They were lucky to finish that high according to the underlying data, with the Turkish giants posting the eighth-worst process, averaging 1.23 xGF and 1.73 xGA per game. They ranked below all of Nice (35th), Rigas (32nd), Malmo (31st) and Slavia Prague (30th) on that metric.
Opponents on Thursday, Anderlecht, weren't much better despite finishing 10th in the league phase, ranking only six places higher than Fenerbache according to expected goals, so it goes without saying that whoever gets through from this tie won't go far in the competition unless their process drastically changes.
The first leg is a tough one to call in the traditional markets, but I'll happily have a swing on FENERBACHE MOST CARDS at a huge 7/5 here.
Mourinho's men have been least disciplined team in the competition, collecting 33 yellows and two reds in eight games - a card per game average of 4.13. Anderlecht meanwhile have collected just 1.88 cards per game across their octet of matches thus far.
Fenerbache have made the eighth most fouls in the Europa League (110 - 13.8 per game), while Anderlecht have made the seventh-fewest (80 - 10.0 per game), with the Belgian side drawing the fourth most fouls (115 - 14.4 per game).
This bet has won in seven of Fenerbache's eight Europa League matches, and half of Anderlecht's games, so it is surprising to see the Turkish side such a big price here. I expected them to be odds-on.
Scenario-wise, both Fener leading or going behind play into this bet, as if they go ahead they will be pulling out all the stops - time-wasting, blatant and cynical fouls etc - and if they go behind they could lose their heads while committing a number of 'professional fouls' as Anderlecht break aiming to score a second.
Union St-Gilloise vs Ajax
- Kick-off: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Home 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 15/8
Jake Osgathorpe
Sticking with the MOST CARDS theme, UNION ST-GILLOISE are outsiders and I just can't get my head around why.
The Belgian side were the second most carded team (32 cards, 4.0 per game - 29 yellow, 3 red) in the league phase behind only Fenerbache (35), and Ajax were the second best card-drawing team, with their opponents picking up 27 yellows and two reds (3.6 per game).
In terms of fouls, Union St-G led the way alongside AZ Alkmaar, averaging 15.3 per game but were only fouled 11.3 times, while Ajax were the fifth most fouled team (14.1).
Add in the fact that the Dutch side only picked up 21 yellows and one red themselves (2.75 cards per game), and the 13/10 price is a head-scratcher.
During the league phase, this bet won in three of Union's four home games and in five of Ajax's eight overall, so I expected the hosts to be favourites in this market.
I'll also have a couple more card-related bets, starting with A RED CARD IN THE MATCH.
Union St-Gilloise's eight matches have seen six red cards, while Ajax's have seen three, and the referee overseeing this game, Donatas Rumšas, isn't shy about getting his red out.
Last season, Rumšas flashed a red card in four of his six Champions League, Europa League or Conference League matches, while this season he's done so in two of six, meaning a healthy 50% strikerate over that sample. 7/2 looks big for a repeat here, it's as short as 23/10 in places.
Given Union St-G have seen BOTH TEAMS RECEIVE A RED CARD in two of their eight contest, we'll have a speculative bet on that happening here as well at 55/1.
Finally, we can back KEVIN MAC ALLISTER TO BE CARDED at a huge 12/5 here and it should be snapped up.
The Union centre-back, brother of Liverpool's Alexis, has been card crazy this season, being carded in seven of 21 league appearances and in four of six Europa League starts, averaging 0.5 cards per 90 this term.
He was suspended twice during the league phase due to a red card against Fenerbache and then an accumulation of yellows, so with the stakes high here and him being tasked with containing Ajax forward Brian Brobbey, a player drawing 2.30 fouls per game in this competition, the price on offer looks huge.
Indeed, he is as short as 7/5 in places, though the lowest I'd go is 9/5, which is available with Paddy Power and Betfair.
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