Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
1.5pts Kevin Mac Allister to be carded in Ajax vs Union St-G (20:00) at 21/10 (Unibet)
1pt Christian Burgess to be carded in Ajax vs Union St-G (20:00) at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Ajax vs Union St-Gilloise
- Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Thursday
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Agg. score: 2-0
- Home 17/20 | Draw 14/5 | Away 13/5
Jake Osgathorpe
Ajax welcome Union St-Gilloise to Amsterdam with a comfortable two-goal lead following victory in Belgium last week. The Dutch side were dominant and deserving of their win (xG: USG 0.59 - 1.36 AJA), meaning Union have it all to do.
The state of the tie means the visitors have to take attacking risks that could leave them exposed on the counter attack, which increases the chances of their centre-backs picking up cards for cynical fouls.
Last week's winning tip, KEVIN MAC ALLISTER is worth backing again TO BE CARDED at 21/10, as well as his defensive partner, Englishman CHRISTIAN BURGESS, who is 3/1 with Sky Bet, being as short as 7/5 in most places.
- CLICK HERE to back Kevin Mac Allister to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Christian Burgess to be carded with Sky Bet
Mac Allister had his name taken yet again last week, with that being the fifth time in his seven Europa League outings that the Argentine has picked up a card. Across league and Europa League matches, he's averaging an incredible 0.53 cards per 90.
Burgess wasn't carded in the first leg but has been carded in three of his eight Europa League appearances, including being given his marching orders. Overall this season he has been carded 10 times in 28 outings, a card per 90 average of 0.36 that would give a blanket implied price of 9/5.
They'll both be tasked with clamping down Ajax's tricky and fast forwards, and so there's every chance they have their name taken by one of Europe's most prolific referees, fellow Englishman Chris Kavanagh.
Kavanagh has brandished an incredible average of 6.2 cards per game on the continent this season, so won't be afraid to dish out the required punishment.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (19/02/25)
Already advised
2pts Over 3.5 goals in Galatasaray vs AZ Alkmaar (17:45) at 23/20 (Betfair)
0.5pts Both teams to score in both halves in Galatasaray vs AZ Alkmaar (17:45) at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, William Hill)
1pt A red card in Roma vs Porto (17:45) at 7/2 (William Hill)
0.5pts A red card each team in Roma vs Porto (17:45) at 65/1 (William Hill)
Galatasaray vs AZ Alkmaar
- Kick-off: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Agg. score: 1-4
- Home 3/5 | Draw 7/2 | Away 7/2
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Galatasaray are 5/1 with Sky Bet to qualify for the next round of the Europa League.
The hosts are 4-1 down to AZ Alkmaar at the halfway stage, so it would be a historic turnaround, but goals are usually plentiful on European nights in Istanbul.
In four continental home games, Galatasaray have scored 13 and conceded nine times with their games averaging 5.5 goals.
This one doesn’t take a genius. OVER 3.5 GOALS is the bet at 23/20.
Opponents AZ Alkmaar domestic defensive record provides a caveat. They have conceded the second fewest goals in the Eredivisie and have had the weekend off to prepare for this clash.
However, Galatasaray’s gung-ho approach should open this fixture up. Besides, the visitors have only kept one clean sheet on the continent this term.
Backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE IN BOTH HALVES is also worth a nibble.
It may have only landed once for the Dutch side and twice for the hosts in Europe but given the dynamic of the clash, we could be in for a topsy-turvy evening in Türkiye.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (19/02/25)
Roma vs Porto
- Kick-off: 17:45 GMT, Thursday
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Agg. score: 1-1
- Home 8/11 | Draw 13/5 | Away 18/5
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
The first leg saw two goals evenly shared and 11 cards (1 red). More of the same on Thursday please.
Referee Francois Letexier has averaged just over four cards per game in his European career which isn’t too impressive. He has dished out seven red cards in 15 appearances in all competitions this season though, three coming in his six European appearances.
In his 39 appearances on the continent, Letexier has flashed 14 red cards in total.
They've conceded an equaliser, and now they're down to 10 🟥
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) February 13, 2025
Cristante sees his second yellow for a pull, and Roma are in a bit of trouble now in Porto.
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/KwLGJjIB33
Porto have played 36 games in all competitions this season, 36% have seen at least one red card and there have been eight reds across their last eight games.
In the Europa League, they have been involved in three games where someone has been dismissed early.
As for Roma, there has been a red card in six of their 36 games this term, two in their last four European games and one in each of their last two games in all competitions.
At 7/2 and 65/1, both A RED CARD IN THE MATCH and BOTH TEAMS TO GET A RED CARD are worth considering with William Hill.
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (19/02/25)
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